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By Jason Subler and Zhou Xin
BEIJING, April 10 (Reuters) - China's exports and imports fell in March from year-earlier levels for the fifth month in a row, but the government and economists saw signs in the data that the contraction in trade flows may be peaking.
Exports were down 17.1 percent from March 2008, not as weak as market forecasts of a 21.5 percent decline and better than February's 25.7 percent slump.
Imports, though, fell 25.1 percent, deeper than both the 22.0 percent drop economists had projected and February's 24.1 percent slide.
"The figures show signs of improvement from February, but it is still too early to say that the worst is over for China's trade sector, said Zhou Xi, an analyst with Bohai Securities in Tianjin.
However, with the overall economy perking up, further stimulus on top of the government's existing 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) package looked increasingly unnecessary, Zhou said.
Ken Peng, an economist with Citigroup in Shanghai, said China might witness further large year-on-year declines in exports given that U.S. imports are still falling hard.
Moreover, the steep drop in China's own imports last month pointed to weakness in domestic demand.
But Peng said import declines should slow as the government's stimulus kicked in, and he agreed that Beijing was likely to keep the rest of its fiscal powder dry for now.
"Markets should not expect more incremental positive policy announcements unless we have a renewed round of weakness," he said.
China's trade surplus in March was $18.56 billion, compared with $4.84 billion in February and a near-record $39.1 billion in January. Economists had expected a reading of $10.4 billion. [ID:nPEK179458].
"All the indicators have shown that China's foreign trade in March has started to witness a noticeable recovery," the customs administration said in a statement on its website.
When adjusted for the difference in working days, exports in March rose 32.8 percent from February, while imports rose 14.0 percent, the agency said.
Not everyone is convinced that the improvement is now sufficiently well-grounded to allow the government to sit back.
Liu Nenghua, an economist with Bank of Communications in Shanghai, expects exports to relapse in coming months as the banking crisis overseas takes a fresh turn for the worse, denting consumption and investment.
"For China, we cannot rule out the possibility of additional stimulus measures," Liu said. "I tend to believe in the necessity for further measures, mainly on the consumption side." (Additional reporting by Langi Chiang and Aileen Wang; Writing by Alan Wheatley; Editing by Ken Wills)