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UPDATE 2-Polish Nov C/A gap narrows to 1.748 bln euros

Published 01/15/2009, 10:38 AM
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(Adds c. banker, other detail)

By Kuba Jaworowski

WARSAW, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Poland's current account deficit narrowed more sharply than expected to 1.748 billion euros in November, with both exports and imports slowing significantly as the global crisis takes a toll on trade flows.

Both exports and imports shrank by about 1.8 billion euros to 8.76 billion and 10.35 billion respectively. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the current account gap to reach 2.020 billion euros in November.

"It's beneficial that the current account deficit is a little better than expected, but both exports and imports are surprisingly low," said Jacek Wisniewski, chief economist at Raiffeisen Bank Polska in Warsaw.

"This data conforms with world trends of falling trade. This is the first signal for the MPC (the central bank's rate-setting Monetary Policy Council) and the government that the slowdown in exports will be significant."

The MPC is expected to cut its main interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.50 percent when it meets later in January, following reductions of 25 and 75 basis points in November and December respectively.

Analysts said Thursday's data, which points to slowing activity, constituted a further incentive for monetary easing.

"We expect a 50 basis point interest rate cut in January and a total of 100-150 basis point in cuts in the first quarter," said Rafal Benecki, senior economist at ING Bank Slaski in Warsaw, commenting on the current account data.

SWIFT RATE CUTS

Stanislaw Nieckarz, a consistent dove on the 10-strong MPC, told the PAP state news agency in an interview published late on Thursday that interest rates should be cut sharply and with no further delay.

"The more the cuts are spread over time, the weaker the positive effect of the cuts will be on the economy," Nieckarz told PAP, without specifying how great the easing should be.

Nieckarz added inflation was no longer a threat for the economy and that it should "get closer" to the central bank's 2.5 percent target by the end of the first half of 2009. Economic growth may slow to about 2 percent in 2009, he said.

The European Union's largest ex-communist economy expanded by about 5 percent in 2008 compared to 6.7 percent in 2007. In a Reuters poll published last week, analysts forecast Polish economic growth of 2 percent this year.

Elsewhere on Thursday, the statistics office said Poland's trade deficit stood at 22.34 billion euros in the January-November period, with exports 14 percent higher than in the same period in 2007 while imports were up 17.4 percent. (Reporting by Kuba Jaworowski, editing by Chris Pizzey)

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