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FOREX-Dollar holds near 3-week lows as payrolls awaited

Published 07/01/2009, 08:52 PM
Updated 07/01/2009, 08:56 PM

* Dollar holds close to 3-week low vs euro

* Sources say China wants FX reserve proposals debated at G8

* Forecast for 363,000 U.S. jobs lost in June

* ECB meets, no changes expected

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, July 2 (Reuters) - The dollar held close to a three-week low against the euro on Thursday as the market hunkered down to await monthly U.S. jobs figures as a guide to how quickly the U.S. economy is turning the corner.

The greenback fell on Wednesday, propelled by news that China was seeking debate about proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight meeting.

The U.S. economy is expected to have shed 363,000 jobs in June, more than 345,000 lost in May, and the unemployment rate is forecast to have risen to 9.6 percent from May's 9.4 percent.

The data, due at 1230 GMT, comes on a Thursday rather than a Friday as usual because July 3 is a holiday in the United States.

U.S. private employers slashed a bigger-than-expected 473,000 jobs in June, according to a report from ADP Employers Services on Wednesday, making the market wary that the government's data may show more positions lost than forecast.

"The ADP number was worse than expected so now there might be some downside risk in payrolls which makes it harder to take large positions," said Yuki Sakasai, currency strategist at Barclays Bank Tokyo.

"Liquidity is low so any negative or positive surprises could exaggerate the move in currencies ahead of the long holiday in the U.S."

The dollar rose in the wake of the previous U.S. non-farm payrolls report in early June, which showed the United States shed far fewer jobs in May than the market was predicting, giving rise to speculation that U.S. rates would go up sooner than expected.

That speculation has largely faded, with economic data continuing to show a mixed picture, but the market is always wary ahead of payrolls because they help determine market views on the pace of economic recovery.

The euro held steady at $1.4136 after touching its highest since early June just above $1.4200 on Wednesday, when it gained 0.8 percent on the day.

G8 sources said China had asked to discuss reserve currency proposals at the Italy summit and the issue could be referred to briefly in the summit statement, although whether it would get that far remained an open question.

Debate about the dollar's reserve status keeps resurfacing to plague it at a time when U.S. government debt is ballooning, making countries which park some of their foreign reserves in U.S. Treasuries nervous.

But analysts said many countries held the view it would be hard to abandon the dollar and any reforms would be a process of many years.

The dollar edged down 0.2 percent to 96.45 yen while the euro slipped 0.3 percent to 136.35 yen.

The dollar index, which measures its performance against a basket of six major currencies, also held close to a three-week low set on Wednesday.

The European Central Bank holds a rate setting meeting on Thursday, although no changes are expected. Policy makers are expected to keep its main refinancing rate at 1 percent and take stock of measures it has taken so far to tackle recession. (Editing by Chris Gallagher)

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