* Parliament support for privatisation uncertain
* Vattenfall stake sale likely to be shelved
* Nordea, Telia, SBAB sales on safer ground but not certain
By Niklas Pollard and Johan Ahlander
STOCKHOLM, Sept 29 (Reuters) - If any Swedish investment bankers were hoping the government's privatisation ambitions would keep them busy and in bonuses in coming years, they might have to think again.
An indecisive result to Sweden's recent election means the governemnt may not be strong enough to push asset sales past a reluctant parliament, potentially spelling less privatisation proceeds for state coffers and investment banks alike.
The main doubts surround the sale of a stake in power group Vattenfall, but other mooted selloffs of stakes in Nordea, TeliaSonera and mortgage lender SBAB could also fall victim.
Prospects for such disposals hinge on delicate political games involving the newcomer in parliament, the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats. The problem over privatisation has arisen after Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt's centre-right coalition failed to win a majority in parliament in the Sept. 19 election.
It soundly beat the centre-left opposition but lost its majority after the Sweden Democrats won their first seats.
Privatisation was a hallmark policy of Reinfeldt's first four years in power. The government has said it would look at selling a minority stake in Vattenfall, Europe's fifth-largest power company and a major player in Germany.
Analysts said they still expected Reinfeldt's government to be able to carry out at least some asset sales, probably enough to cover its cautious estimate of privatisation revenue of roughly 100 billion crowns ($14.5 billion) over four years.
"But a sale of Vattenfall will not be on the cards during the term since the Sweden Democrats have said they would rather see it owned by the state. That is our interpretation," said Carl Hammer, head of FX research at SEB.
Getting the Sweden Democrats on board for the sale of any of Vattenfall could be tricky for Reinfeldt, who has said he will not seek support from a party he regards as racist.
The party itself also has its own views of what a sale of Vattenfall should look like.
BARGAINING CHIP?
"If they want to sell all of Vattenfall we would not support it, but if they wanted to sell the foreign parts we would," Sweden Democrat economic policy spokesman Johnny Skalin said. "We want to keep the entire ownership of the Swedish part of Vattenfall."
The Sweden Democrats, intent on expanding nuclear power, are keeping their options open on other privatisations and would evaluate any deals on a case-by-case basis, Skalin added.
Vattenfall has an enterprise value of between 250 billion Swedish crowns and 500 billion based on valuations of its top eight listed European peers.
The Nordea stake is worth about 57 billion crowns and the TeliaSonera holding 88 billion, based on their average share prices over the past three months.
Proceeds from the sale of equity assets would be expected to support the crown and dent the supply of Swedish government debt.
The lack of progress on privatisation would have the opposite effect, though it would not seriously upset public finances with Sweden already showing the smallest deficit in the European Union and returning to surplus in 2011 or 2012.
The centre-left opposition, like the governing bloc, has ruled out cooperating with the Sweden Democrats. But the waters are muddied since the Sweden Democrats could support any selloffs, not least if they sought to use the issue as a bargaining chip to influence other policies.
The government already holds parliament mandates to sell its 19.9 percent in Nordea, 37.3 percent in TeliaSonera and fully owned SBAB. In theory, a combination of the centre-left and the Sweden Democrats could overturn these mandates.
The opposition tried to halt asset sales during the past term of office and an economic spokesman for the Social Democrats, the biggest party in the centre-left bloc, said they were likely to launch new bills to do so in the coming term.
"We will never abstain from laying out our policy. It could happen then that the Sweden Democrats sometimes vote in favour of this policy and we can't stop them from doing so," he said.
Gothenburg University Political Science Professor Ulf Bjereld said the Social Democrat-led bloc may sound out whether the centre-right government would be prepared to lay low with privatisation over the next couple of years in exchange for not seeking to have the mandates blocked.
"It will be a game not so much with the Sweden Democrats, but rather between the opposition and the government to decide whether these issues go to a ... vote or not," Bjereld said. (Additional reporting by Bjorn Rundstrom and Mia Shanley; Editing by David Holmes) ($1=6.912 Swedish Crown)