(Corrects second bullet point from slips to rises)
* Will still buy forex on days of unusual movements
* Shekel rises vs dollar
* Rate hikes seen as next policy move
(Adds comments from central bank/analysts, background)
By Steven Scheer
JERUSALEM, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Israel's central bank said on Monday it will end a more than one-year programme of buying $100 million of foreign currency a day but that it would still intervene in the market on days of unusual movements.
The move -- which comes months ahead of the latest market
expectations -- sent the shekel
"The Bank of Israel announces that it will from tomorrow (Tuesday) discontinue its program of daily purchases of $100 million in the foreign exchange market which began in July 2008," it said in a statement.
Two weeks ago, the central bank became the first central bank to stop a radical easing step of buying government bonds when it left its key short-term lending rate at 0.5 percent.
"With the policy rate already close to zero, continued dollar purchases were interpreted as a drive by the Bank of Israel towards looser monetary conditions," said Roderick Ngotho, an emerging markets strategist at UBS.
"Removing the dollar purchases ... can be interpreted as pre-tightening with regards to overall monetary conditions".
Economists, though, doubt the Bank of Israel will start raising borrowing costs until late in 2009 at the earliest since the economy remains in recession despite signs of recovery, while recent rises in the consumer price index are not considered inflationary since they stem from tax increases.
"There was uncertainty regarding the timing and the rate of recovery," according to minutes of the central bank's July 27 policy meeting. [ID:nLA209321]
In response to a 12 percent appreciation in the shekel against the dollar to a Dec. 19 peak, the Bank of Israel last week said it would buy more foreign currency.
Dealers estimated the purchases last week at around $1.5 billion, helping push the dollar up 5 percent versus the shekel.
"I don't think even this new intervention policy will go on forever and (Governor) Stanley Fischer said he realised that the Bank of Israel can't go against macro fundamentals. So, they are looking more at slowing shekel appreciation rather than reversing it," said HSBC economist Jonathan Katz.
NOT "PRINTING MONEY"
The central bank is under pressure to reduce the amount of speculators in the market and to weaken the shekel to make hard-hit Israeli exports more attractive.
"The Bank of Israel will act in the foreign exchange market in the event of unusual movements in the exchange rate which are inconsistent with underlying economic conditions, or when conditions in the foreign exchange market are disorderly," it said.
In a separate statement, the Bank of Israel said its current policy "does not have a time limit" and buying dollars does not constitute "printing money" since it sells short-term bills to absorb money injected into the market. As such, the central bank believes buying foreign currency is not inflationary.
It said the original programme was aimed at increasing foreign currency reserves, a target that has been achieved. Later on, it was part of the response to the global crisis. Since the purchases started, the bank's foreign currency reserves have jumped more than $20 billion to top $52 billion.
"The new operating policy of the Bank of Israel in the foreign exchange market will provide a better response to the economy's needs," the central bank said.
"The Bank of Israel has no intention to operate against global exchange rate trends," it added.
Analysts said the new policy will limit speculators in the market since intervention will now be more uncertain.
After weakening to as much as 3.96 earlier on on Monday, the shekel rebounded to 3.87 after the announcement.
"Whatever happens with the shekel, it will only last a couple of days (since) $100 million a day doesn't cut it when you are talking about a weaker dollar around the world," said Vered Dar, chief economist at the Psagot brokerage in Tel Aviv.
"If the dollar strengthens in the world it will strengthen versus the shekel as well. If it weakens, it will weaken versus the shekel as well," she added.