(Corrects conversion in paragraph four to billion, not million)
SHANGHAI, March 9 (Reuters) - China's economy in the first quarter is forecast to expand 6.5 percent from a year earlier, and consumer prices will likely contract 1 percent, a government think tank said.
Chinese exports may fall 9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier to $278.4 billion, while imports are likely to drop 25 percent to $198.4 billion, the State Information Center predicted in a report carried in the China Securities Journal.
As a result, China's trade surplus may jump 93.2 percent to $80 billion, it said.
China has taken a series of measures, including a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan, tax cuts, and looser monetary policies, to prevent a sharp slowdown in its economy.
(Reporting by Samuel Shen, Editing by Jacqueline Wong; Reuters Messaging: jacqueline.wong.reuters.com@reuters.net; +86 21 6104 1791)) ($1=6.839 Yuan)