--John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own--
By John Kemp
LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The bitter political divisions between middle America and Wall Street on display when the House of Representatives first rejected the Emergency Economic Stabilisation Act last month look set to be re-opened in even more dramatic form in the remaining months of the year.
Rep Henry Waxman, chairman of the powerful House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, on Tuesday sent identical letters to the chief executives of nine major banks receiving $125 billion of capital injections under the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) demanding details of total bonus payments for 2006, 2007 and 2008 (see http://oversight.house.gov/documents/20081028142314.pdf).
The issue of bonuses and dividend payouts from banks that accepted the TARP injection looks set to become highly charged.
It is going to be hard for the banks and Treasury to explain why so much taxpayer funding needs to go in through the front door, only for it to flow out again as staff bonuses and divident payments to ordinary shareholders. Bonus and dividend payments could quickly absorb all the TARP capital funding.
The issue of responsibility for the credit crisis will intensify during the quarterly dividend and annual bonus payout period in Dec-Feb, just when a new administration will be taking office and Democrats are likely to extend their control over both houses of Congress.
The equation between bonus and dividend payments on the one hand and capitalisation and TARP funding is a false one. But it will stoke fury in middle America about the cost of bailing out banks while homeowners continue to be foreclosed.
By heightening the political temperature at a key time, it will make a more radical solution to the crisis more likely. For example, buying off political hostility to the continued bonus and dividend payments will almost certainly force Congress and the incoming administration to consider widespread restructuring, loan guarantees and other financial support to homeowners and troubled companies (eg GM) which in turn will intensify the upward pressure on the budget deficit.
The toxic cocktail of TARP, compensation and dividends will complicate budget planning and makes it almost certain there will be significant slippage on the federal government's budget deficit. Even before the crisis struck, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) were projecting deficits of around $450 billion in 2009.
TARP will add at least another $250 billion to the deficit -- because CBO has already reportedly decided capital injections into banks will be counted as 100 pct spending (and 100% revenue when they are finally cashed in) rather than just counting the subsidy element of the credits and estimates of likely losses (which is what would have happened if the TARP had been utilised only to buy troubled assets, as the Treasury originally proposed).
OMB is likely to take a similar view. There is already speculation the Treasury could use TARP funds to help smooth a merger between General Motors and Chrysler. The more of TARP is used for equity injections rather than troubled asset purchases, the higher the deficit will be.
In addition, the worsening downturn may well cut income tax and corporation tax revenues, while boosting expenditure on unemployment insurance and aid to families with dependent children in the form of food stamps.
This is before Congress considers tax cuts, homeownwer bailouts or extra spending to stem the tide of foreclosures and stimulate the economy. Using conservative estimates, the budget deficit for fiscal 2009 could easily hit a record $900 billion -- $450 billion originally projected plus $250 billion of TARP equity capitalisations plus $100 billion in underlying deterioration from the automatic stabilisers of lower tax receipts and higher welfare spending plus $100 billion of stimulus from extra tax cuts and spending.
The US government will therefore need to borrow about $900 billion to finance new deficits as well as around $2.3 trillion to roll over existing debt maturing within the next twelve months.
The cocktail of TARP, compensation, dividends and record debt issuance promises to be very bitter indeed.