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China yuan rally to stall despite pressure -economist

Published 09/21/2010, 06:07 AM
Updated 09/21/2010, 06:12 AM

BEIJING, Sept 21 (Reuters) - China has let the yuan rise at a faster clip in response to foreign political pressure and the country's sound economic fundamentals, but the rally may soon hit a speed bump, a senior government economist said on Tuesday.

The yuan on Tuesday rose for ninth straight day and broke the important level of 6.70 per dollar for the first time since its revaluation in July 2005.

"I don't think the yuan will appreciate like this for long. It will stabilise after a period," Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at the State Information Centre, a leading government think-tank, told Reuters.

China will probably allow the yuan to rise at an annual pace of 3-5 percent in the coming years in line with the continued improvements in the country's productivity, Zhu said.

Chinese officials have repeatedly warned that any sharp currency appreciation could hit exporters and trigger job losses.

China's yuan has risen 1.35 percent in the past nine trading days, quickening its rate of climb against a backdrop of growing U.S. criticism of China's exchange rate policy.

On Monday, President Barack Obama weighed in, saying that Beijing has not done enough to raise the value of its currency.

The rally has been propelled by foreign pressure and China's economic recovery, notably its rising trade surplus, Zhu said.

A stronger yuan would do little to solve the deep-seated economic problems in the United States, he said.

Zhu said China's consumer price inflation, which hit a 22-month high of 3.5 percent in August, may be near its peak due to anaemic global economic recovery.

He forecast the economy would grow nearly 10 percent in 2010, with tailwinds contained by the government's policy tightening. (Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

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