China data shows capital inflows near record high

Published 11/28/2010, 08:01 PM
Updated 11/28/2010, 08:04 PM

* Data shows capital inflows nearly doubled in Oct from Sept

* Data shows Oct inflows third largest in history

* Explains PBOC tightening including rate, bank reserve hikes

* New tightening steps may now be delayed to next year

By Lu Jianxin and Jason Subler

SHANGHAI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - A set of data published by the People's Bank of China, called the "Position for Forex Purchases", showed capital flowing into the country jumped in October and approached its historical high, reinforcing the government's rationale for a slew of monetary tightening steps since October.

The central bank and Chinese institutions spent 519 billion yuan ($78 billion) to absorb foreign exchange flowing into China in October, about double the 290 billion yuan in September and 243 billion yuan in August, according to Reuters calculation based on the latest data published by the central bank over the weekend.

October's "Position for Forex Purchases", a key measure reflecting capital inflows into China, was the third largest since the PBOC started to publish the data in the late 1990s, only shy of a record 654 billion yuan hit in January 2008 and 525 billion yuan in April 2008, Reuters calculations showed.

China has seen a steady increase of capital inflows since the end of the last century as speculators bet on the country's rising prices of shares and property as well as the expected appreciation of the yuan against the dollar.

The yuan appreciated 0.31 percent to the dollar in October after rising 1.74 percent in September, its biggest monthly gain since its landmark revaluation in July 2005, amid intensified pressure for the currency to appreciate, particularly from the United States.

Share prices jumped 14 percent in October, while property prices remained stable despite a series of official cooling measures as China's money market was flooded with liquidity, partly driven by Chinese institutions dumping of cash in prospects of a fresh round of U.S. quantitative easing, traders said.

While the market was still in the dark about how much money was flowing into China around the time of the U.S. announcement of the second leg of quantitative easing, the PBOC surprised the market by raising official deposit and lending rates on Oct. 19.

Although the U.S. easing steps do not begin until next month, traders said the inflows were from institutions anticipating more liquidity becoming available after QE2 kicks in.

The PBOC followed through with an official rate rise and on several occasions raised the amounts banks must put in reserve with the central bank, locking up about 1 trillion yuan.

Funding costs in China have jumped since then, with the accumulative impact of a series of central bank tightening steps making banks cautious about lending, leading to a tentative squeeze in the money market.

Last Friday, the barometer of short-term liquidity, the seven-day government bond repurchase rate , rose 19 basis points, having rocketed 87 basis points in all since the Oct. 19 interest rate hike.

Last week, the PBOC injected 54 billion yuan into the system via its open market operations and is expected to do so again this week as the liquidity situation worsens sharply.

As such, traders said, a widely expected second rise in official lending and deposit rates this year may now be unlikely, and could be delayed until the first quarter of next year. ($1=6.65 yuan) (Editing by Ken Wills)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.