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CEE MARKETS 4-Crown tops region on strong fiscal performance

Published 12/30/2010, 11:14 AM
Updated 12/30/2010, 11:16 AM
CHF/HUF
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* Czech deficit to be less than target - finance minister * Poland to cut pension fund transfers to plug budget - PM * Hungary pays higher yield on bonds, CHF/HUF near record high

(Adds Poland pension reform, Czech deficit, updates markets)

By Marton Dunai and Dagmara Leszkowicz

BUDAPEST/WARSAW, Dec 30 (Reuters) - The Czech crown was the top performing currency in emerging Europe on the last full trading day of the year, punctuating a strong performance in 2010 that reflected confidence in the republic's fiscal and economic position.

The crown added a third of a percent by 1529 GMT on Thursday as the Finance Minister said the government was on course to meet its 2010 deficit target and that it could even come in slightly below the government's aim of 163 billion crowns.

The Polish zloty held steady near a one-month high helped by state-owned BGK bank converting euros into the local currency, but Polish bonds weakened a shade on the longer end after the government unveiled a pension reform proposal.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk unveiled plans to cut employees' contributions to mandatory private pension funds to 2.3 percent of their monthly salaries from 7.3 percent at present to help shore up budget finances.

BGK bank is authorised to convert euros for zlotys on behalf of the finance ministry, which needs to exchange European Union funds. The bank's presence in the market also has a psychological impact in supporting the zloty, dealers said.

"BGK is likely to rule in the market until the end of the year," said one Warsaw-based dealer. "The local support level is 3.96."

Meanwhile, the Hungarian forint slipped 0.2 percent on the day against the euro as the country's assets continued to feel the effects of two recent ratings downgrades.

The forint also suffered against the global safe haven Swiss franc, whose strength pushed the CHF/HUF pair near the all-time high of 226.36 in intraday trading. The strength of the franc, the main funding unit for Hungary's foreign currency loans, hurts the hundreds of thousands of Hungarian households who have taken out franc-denominated debt.

The Romanian leu was flat.

HUNGARIAN YIELDS RISE

The Czech crown is the top gainer in the region this year, having added 4.4 percent, followed by the zloty, which is also backed by strong economic fundamentals and which has gained 3.5 percent in 2010.

The forint and the leu have slipped 3.2 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, in 2010 amid political tension and uncertainty over their fiscal outlooks.

Data from the National Bank of Hungary showed the country's current account surplus stood at 477 million euros in the third quarter, more than analysts' forecasts.

Hungary was forced to pay yields up to a quarter of a percent above recent levels as it sold 45 billion forints worth of bonds at the year's last auction, as planned.

Poland said it would sell 12-18 billion zlotys worth of treasury bills at 12 auctions in the first quarter.

Both countries' bond markets were quiet at the end of the year, although longer-maturity Polish bond yields rose about 3 basis points after the pension reform announcement. --------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT-------------------- Currency Latest Previous Local Local

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today in 2010 Czech crown 25.199 25.283 +0.33% +4.44% Polish zloty 3.965 3.965 0% +3.51% Hungarian forint 279.35 278.9 -0.16% -3.22% Croatian kuna 7.384 7.385 +0.01% -1.01% Romanian leu 4.286 4.286 0% -1.13% Serbian dinar 105.4 104.9 -0.47% -9.03% Yield Spreads Czech treasury bonds <0#CZBMK=> 2-yr T-bond CZ2YT=RR -15 basis points to 65bps over bmk* 7-yr T-bond CZ7YT=RR +8 basis points to +93bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond CZ9YT=RR +8 basis points to +80bps over bmk* Polish treasury bonds <0#PLBMK=> 2-yr T-bond PL2YT=RR +1 basis points to +381bps over bmk* 5-yr T-bond PL5YT=RR +6 basis points to +360bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond PL10YT=RR +4 basis points to +301bps over bmk* Hungarian treasury bonds <0#HUBMK=> 3-yr T-bond HU3YT=RR +6 basis points to +669bps over bmk* 5-yr T-bond HU5YT=RR +14 basis points to +604bps over bmk* 10-yr T-bond HU10YT=RR +12 basis points to +500bps over bmk* *Benchmark is German bond equivalent. All data taken from Reuters at 1629 CET. Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic close at 1700 GMT.

For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news [EMRG] Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX Middle East spot FX Asia spot FX Latin America spot FX Other news and reports World central bank news [CEN] Economic Data Guide Official rates [GLOBAL/INT] Emerging Diary [EMRG/DIARY] Top events [M/DIARY] Diaries [DIARY] Diaries Index [IND/DIARY] (Reporting by Reuters bureaus, Writing by Marton Dunai and Dagmara Leszkowicz, Editing by Hugh Lawson and Susan Fenton)

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