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CANADA FX DEBT-C$ tumbles as data shows Canada inflation low

Published 01/20/2010, 05:01 PM
Updated 01/20/2010, 05:03 PM

* Ends at C$1.0470 to the US$, or 95.51 U.S. cents

* Inflation figures come in lower than expected

* Tighter credit climate in China hits oil

* Bond prices firm across curve (Updates to close, adds quote)

By Jennifer Kwan

TORONTO, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Canada's dollar notched its steepest one-day loss in about three months on Wednesday as unexpectedly low Canadian inflation figures lessened the chances of a near-term interest-rate rise and as the U.S. dollar rallied.

The currency touched a low of C$1.0490 to the U.S. dollar, or 95.33 U.S. cents -- down 1.7 percent from Tuesday's close -- to log its steepest slide since late October.

The move lower came as data showed the consumer price index slipped 0.3 percent in December from November, and that 12-month inflation was 1.3 percent, lower than expected. Core CPI, closely watched by the central bank, also came in slightly weaker than expected with a decline of 0.3 percent in the month for an annual rate of 1.5 percent. [ID:nN20125463]

"The softer number was basically providing further evidence that the Bank of Canada will keep its conditional commitment (not to raise rates) to the middle of the year and that the hikes following that might actual be a slower process than what's currently priced into the markets," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

Strauss added some investors were already nervous after the Bank of Canada signaled on Tuesday it was in no rush to raise interest rates. [ID:nN19514256]

In a separate report on Wednesday, Canadian manufacturing sales advanced less than expected in November from October as weakness in the automotive and aerospace sectors offset gains in most other industries, Statistics Canada said. [ID:nN20446129]

Another factor weighing on the currency was the price of oil, a key Canadian export, which dropped below $78 a barrel as the U.S. dollar strengthened and as demand worries grew due to bank lending curbs in China. [O/R] [.N] [ID:nTOE60J09N]

The Canadian dollar finished at C$1.0470 to the U.S. dollar, or 95.51 U.S. cents, down from Tuesday's close of C$1.0307 to the U.S. dollar, or 97.02 U.S. cents.

The greenback got a boost on Wednesday from expectations that the election of Massachusetts Republican to the U.S. Senate might might push Washington to rein in spending and cut the fiscal deficit. [ID:nN18159712]

The euro fell to five-month lows against the dollar on Wednesday as concerns over Greek debt pushed the currency below a key support level and triggered widespread selling. [FRX/]

BONDS FIRM

Canadian bond prices were firmer across the curve as the market interpreted the inflation data as an indicator the Bank of Canada will stick to its conditional pledge to keep rates on hold until the end of the second quarter.

"It really cemented the fact that there are really soft inflation pressures going through the economy," said Ian Pollick, economics strategist at TD Securities.

The yield on the two-year bond dipped to 1.217 percent from 1.255 percent just before the inflation data was released.

Yields on overnight index swaps, which trade based on expectations for the key rate, edged lower after the data, showing the market saw tightening as less likely. Still, the market suggests the Bank of Canada's key rate will be around 0.50 percent in July and 1 percent in December, compared with the current 0.25 percent.

Pollick added the market is keenly awaiting details from Thursday's Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the central bank's quarterly economic projection, and an ensuing press conference by Governor Mark Carney.

The two-year Canada bond edged 9 Canadian cents higher to C$100.07 to yield 1.212 percent, while the 30-year bond climbed 41 Canadian cents to C$116.23 to yield 4.016 percent.

Canadian bonds mostly outperformed U.S. Treasuries. The Canadian two-year bond was 33 basis points above the U.S. two-year yield , compared with about 38 basis points below in the previous session. (Reporting by Jennifer Kwan; editing by Peter Galloway)

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