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CANADA FX DEBT-C$ ends higher, bonds tumble; eyes on Oct GDP

Published 12/22/2009, 04:39 PM
Updated 12/22/2009, 04:42 PM

* C$ ends higher at 94.53 U.S. cents

* Bonds track U.S. market lower

* Canada GDP for October due Wednesday morning

TORONTO, Dec 22 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar firmed against the U.S. currency on Tuesday, boosted by higher oil prices, and as investors were reassured by the prime minister's comments about Ottawa's fiscal restraint.

Ongoing optimism about the economic recovery in Canada and the United States added to positive momentum for the currency, although market watchers cautioned that price moves across most markets remained exaggerated by light pre-Christmas trade.

Strong U.S. housing data buoyed optimism, but the enthusiasm was tempered by slower pace of third-quarter growth in the United States than expected. [ID:nN22392364]

Still, riskier asset classes such as stocks pushed higher on the rosier view, supporting the Canadian dollar, and took attention away from the relative safety of government debt.

The Canadian dollar finished at C$1.0579 to the U.S. dollar, or 94.53 U.S. cents, up from C$1.0614 to the U.S. dollar, or 94.22 U.S. cents, at Monday's close.

Real gross domestic product data for October, due Wednesday, is expected to build on strength from September and contribute to a healthier fourth-quarter reading of growth after Canada barely exited recession in the last quarter.

Analysts forecast a reading of 0.3 percent growth. This week's retail sales data for October was better than expected and augured well for an economic recovery.

"It will be fairly significant, the October GDP, because it will go a long way to firming up expectations for fourth-quarter growth. Right now, markets are fairly optimistic that it will flag a fairly marked improvement in growth," said Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

The Canadian dollar's move higher is in keeping with a broader strengthening trend, and published comments by Prime Minister Stephen Harper also helped to boost the currency, said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital.

"On a relative basis, not only is Canada better positioned in terms of our fiscal deficit, but I think we have a more credible plan in place as to how we will decrease the deficit we have. I think Harper's comments just highlight that."

The prime minister said Ottawa would continue recovery spending until 2011, but Canadians should expect five years of belt-tightening. [ID:nN2250738]

BONDS FOLLOW U.S. TREASURIES

With no major domestic data on tap, Canadian bond prices followed the big U.S. Treasury market lower, which was knocked down by growing optimism that the U.S. economy is pulling out of recession.

The two-year government bond fell 7 Canadian cents to C$99.73 to yield 1.394 percent, while the 30-year bond dropped 75 Canadian cents to C$114.30 to yield 4.124 percent.

Canadian notes put in a mixed performance against U.S. bonds, with the belly of the curve outperforming. But the 10-year yield spread widened to 15.6 basis points below its U.S. counterpart from 16.7 basis points the previous session. (Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; editing by Rob Wilson)

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