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Brazil investors see little turmoil from elections

Published 08/28/2009, 04:24 PM
Updated 08/28/2009, 04:27 PM

* Election climate differs from market free-fall in 2002

* Policies expected to keep economy growing

* Brazil "well-positioned" to weather global downturn

By Elzio Barreto and Daniela Machado

CAMPOS DO JORDAO, Brazil, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Investment in Brazilian stocks and companies should remain steady through 2010 even as Brazil heads into presidential elections, fund managers and executives said on Friday.

Investors are less worried this election cycle than previously about possible policy changes to keep inflation at bay, pay down debt and stoke economic growth, said Arminio Fraga, head of hedge fund Gavea Investimentos and a former president of Brazil's central bank.

"An election year is full of emotions, but we are talking about emotions at a different level now," said Fraga, who is also chairman of exchange operator BM&FBovespa , at an investment conference sponsored by BM&FBovespa.

"The views have converged in seeing the advantages of economic stability. This greatly reduces the possibility for uncertainties."

International investors are less concerned about a change in economic policies ahead of the October 2010 elections than in 2002, when Brazil's currency and bonds went into a free-fall on fears that the country's current president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva who at the time was a presidential candidate, would default on the country's debt.

Brazil has the chance to differentiate itself even further in the next three to five years, said Edward Misrahi, responsible for European and emerging markets activities at hedge fund Eton Park Capital Management.

"Brazil is well positioned among global markets because of its healthy banking system and the credibility of monetary policy authorities," Misrahi said in a seminar.

Lula himself vowed on Thursday to maintain fiscal discipline in 2010 despite growing concerns the government would boost spending in the election year for political gains.

Lula, who is prevented from seeking a third consecutive term but whose preferred candidate is trailing the opposition party's candidate, also said there were no plans to "play around" with inflation, which has been central to stabilize the country's economy the past years.

Patria Investimentos is one private equity that sees no change due to the upcoming elections.

"The election today is not such an important factor as it was in the past," said Luis Otavio Reis de Magalhaes, a founding partner in the firm. "This is an issue we are not monitoring."

Patria Investimentos is analyzing 10 investment opportunities and does not plan to alter them because of the elections, he said. The firm has $550 million to invest and is looking for stakes in companies with a domestic consumer focus and in the infrastructure sector.

Brazil's benchmark Bovespa index <.BVSP> has surged 53 percent so far in 2009, while the country's currency, the real strengthened 24 percent as investors flocked to Brazil on expectations Latin America's largest economy would emerge from recession faster than most developed countries.

Brazil's economy is expected contract only 0.4 percent in 2009, a much more modest decline than what is expected in some major economies, and it should benefit from increased demand for its agriculture and manufactured exports in 2010 as the global economy rebounds.

"Overseas the perception is very clear, Brazil has climbed out of hell," said Paulo Guedes, a founding partner of investment bank Pactual and head of private equity firm BR Investimentos.

"The country has started on a period of long-term economic growth." (Editing by Leslie Adler)

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