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French flash PMIs sink again to record survey lows

Published 12/16/2008, 03:30 AM
Updated 12/16/2008, 03:35 AM

By Brian Rohan

PARIS, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Sputtering demand at home and abroad drove economic activity in France's private sector to new lows in December, a key survey showed on Tuesday.

Flash estimates of the Markit/CDAF composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) -- which combines data from services and manufacturing firms -- showed its headline figure falling to 38.4 in December from 41.2 in November.

For a third month in a row, the reading marked a new low point since the series started in May 1998, and was far below the 50 mark which separates growth from contraction.

Chief economist Chris Williamson from data compiler Markit said the figures showed there was no bottom in sight for the euro zone's second largest economy.

"It's global and domestic demand... it's hard to see how things could continue going down, but also hard to see what could turn it round," he said.

"The fourth quarter is already set for a contraction, but now I'm more pessimistic about first quarter growth," he added.

Last week the Bank of France downgraded its forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter, which it now sees as shrinking 0.7 percent as opposed to a previously expected 0.5 percent contraction.

Headline figures in December's PMI survey showed both the services and manufacturing sectors contracting at a faster pace then expected by economists polled by Reuters.

The manufacturing index fell to a new series low of 35.9 in December from the series' previous low of 37.3 in November, just undercutting the 36.0 consensus forecast.

But the services sector, which accounts for around two-thirds of the French economy, saw its index slip to a new series low of 41.6, while economists were expecting it at a firmer 45.0 from the previous month's 46.2.

"The deterioration in demand is increasingly spreading to the service sector, which had previously shown a degree of resilience," said economist Jack Kennedy, also at Markit.

Earlier this month President Nicolas Sarkozy announced a 26 billion euro ($35 billion) stimulus package to spur on the economy mainly through public investment, but analysts wonder if the aid will flow quick enough to stave off recession next year.

With employment measures in both sectors covered by the survey falling to their lowest levels since the series began, worries also surfaced of spill-over effects on consumer spending, which accounts for just over half of the economy.

"In terms of headcount, the service sector is responding quicker to the downturn in France then in Germany... that will be good for corporate profitability but will hit household confidence," Markit's Williamson said.

"There's quite a hit coming through in that service sector downturn... and very strong links to cuts in automotive and construction sector output," he added.

French automakers have announced thousands of jobs cuts and the property market, especially seen through the prism of new housing starts, has gone into a nation-wide downturn.

The survey also showed another month of rapid falls in inflationary pressure, with the index on manufacturing sector output prices dropping to 47.2 in December from 49.8 in November, while input prices also fell to 36.9 from 41.8. (Editing by Toby Chopra)

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