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By Scott Haggett
YELLOWKNIFE, Northwest Territories, April 1 (Reuters) - Canada's economic recession could extend through the second half of this year, the Bank of Canada said on Wednesday, backing away from an earlier forecast that growth would return in the third quarter.
Even though the economy contracted at perhaps its sharpest rate on record in the first quarter, Governor Mark Carney said in a speech there was no guarantee he would use additional tools at his disposal -- including rate cuts or unconventional measures -- to stimulate the economy further as the central bank's benchmark interest rate approaches zero.
He hinted that the bank could introduce additional stimulus simply by holding down rates -- now at 0.5 percent -- for an extended period of time, without cutting further.
"It is important to recognize that central banks do not necessarily need to keep cutting rates to provide additional monetary easing. Duration matters. By keeping rates low for longer, additional stimulus can be provided," he said in the prepared text for a speech he was delivering in Yellowknife in the Northwest Territories.
Carney reiterated that he would outline a framework on April 23 for credit and "quantitative" easing, which analysts believe could involve printing money to buy securities outright in the market. But whether or not he uses those measures depends on the outlook for growth and inflation, he said.
"To be absolutely clear, outlining a framework does not necessarily imply that these policy options will be deployed," he said.
While the first-quarter contraction will likely be the worst on record at least since 1961, aggressive rate cuts and fiscal stimulus will begin to gain traction in the second half and Canada will likely recover faster than most other major economies, he said.
But the recession could linger for longer than previously thought. "The Canadian economy could continue to contract into the second half of this year," he said.
The eventual recovery depends on a stabilization of the global financial system and a return of confidence to businesses and consumers.
Canada's economy shrank 0.7 percent in January, following a 3.4 percent contraction, annualized, in the fourth quarter of last year.
The Bank of Canada forecast in January an average annual GDP contraction of 1.2 percent this year but predicted a sharp rebound next year with growth of 3.8 percent. That is now considered wildly optimistic by most private sector economists.
At that time, the bank projected a first-quarter contraction of 4.8 percent, a 1.0 percent contraction in the second quarter, followed by growth of 2 percent in the third and 3.5 percent in the fourth.
Carney voiced caution to governments on doing much more to stimulate global growth, warning of the possible crowding out of private financing and emphasizing the need to maintain fiscal and monetary credibility.
"In the coming months, there may be pressure for policy to do more. Such decisions must be taken carefully with an eye to the scale of what has already been done, the traditional lags to policy, and the paramount need to retain the credibility of fiscal and monetary frameworks," he said.
"There are ... concerns over possible crowding out of private finance by large-scale public debt issuance. Sovereign debt issuance -- excluding guarantees -- will rise threefold this year ... Governments will need to be prudent when considering additional borrowing."
He said fiscal policy initiatives around the world have been robust, with the world well on its way to spending 2 percent of gross domestic product in stimulus, and he said target interest rates have been substantially and rapidly reduced in major economies.
The central bank has cut its overnight interest rate by 4 percentage points since December 2007, reducing it to a historic low of 0.5 percent as of March.
The text of Carney's speech was made available at the central bank's headquarters in Ottawa. (Reporting by Louise Egan and Randall Palmer)