* Novartis Q3 net profit $2.1 bln, matching forecast
* Sees $400-700 million H1N1 vaccine sales in Q4
* Ups full-year guidance excluding swine flu vaccine
* Shares up 0.5 percent, outperform sector
(Adds analyst comment, shares, H1N1 detail)
By Sam Cage
ZURICH, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Swiss drugmaker Novartis said sales would grow faster than expected this year, even without a shot in the arm of up to $700 million from its H1N1 swine flu pandemic vaccine.
Third-quarter net profit at Novartis, which joined other major drugmakers in reporting strong trading conditions, nudged up 1 percent to $2.1 billion, in line with forecasts, the firm said on Thursday.
"A surprisingly strong set of operating figures," said DZ Bank analyst Thomas Maul. "Management guidance, especially the outlook for the pharmaceuticals division, is amazingly bullish."
Novartis shares rose 0.5 percent to 52.75 Swiss francs by 0736 GMT, versus a 0.6 percent drop in the DJ Stoxx European healthcare sector.
This year is turning out to be better than initially feared for Novartis and other major pharmaceutical companies, thanks to hefty price increases and windfall sales arising from the H1N1 outbreak, though long-term problems like increasing competition from makers of generic drugs have not gone away.
Both Pfizer, the world's biggest drugmaker, and Eli Lilly topped earnings forecasts this week and investors will look to U.S. rivals Merck & Co and Bristol-Myers Squibb, both due to report later on Thursday, for more clues on the health of the sector.
Novartis, which faces loss of exclusivity on its top-selling blood pressure drug Diovan in 2012, was hit by one-off charges of $189 million from rival Roche's acquisition of Genentech and discontinuing of a drug by Alcon.
It has a 33 percent stake in Roche and holds 25 percent of eye care company Alcon. It made no comment on an agreement with Nestle to acquire a majority of Alcon.
The world's biggest food group, which on Thursday reported nine-month sales that met forecasts and kept its 2009 outlook unchanged, also gave no comment on Alcon in its trading statement.
SWINE FLU BOOSTER
Swine flu is set to provide a significant boost to European drugmakers this year and in the early part of 2010, though the one-off nature of these sales means investors may not set too much store on the resulting profit boost.
Roche reported a sharp jump in sales of its Tamiflu drug for flu last week and analysts expect GlaxoSmithKline's Relenza will also see strong sales in the third quarter.
On the vaccine front, Glaxo, Sanofi-Aventis and AstraZeneca are all expected to highlight an expected jump in fourth-quarter sales due to swine flu when they unveil results next week.
Novartis now expects group sales to grow at a high single-digit rate, even excluding H1N1 pandemic flu vaccine sales, and sees drugs sales growth at a double-digit rate.
It had previously expected group sales to grow at a mid-single-digit rate in 2009 and drug sales to rise at a minimum high-single-digit rate, both in local currencies.
It added currency-related losses could significantly reduce growth this year.
The H1N1 flu vaccine is expected to contribute about $400-700 million of sales in the fourth quarter.
Novartis trades at about 13 times forecast 2010 earnings, a premium to some of Europe's other big drugmakers like AstraZeneca, Glaxo and Sanofi but a discount to Swiss rival Roche, which has less exposure to generic competition.
It had been expected to post third-quarter net profit of $2.1 billion, according to a Reuters poll.
(Additional reporting by Ben Hirschler in London; editing by John Stonestreet)