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UPDATE 2-China capital spending slows as economy softens

Published 11/14/2008, 02:10 AM
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(Adds figure for October alone in paragraph 7)

By Michael Wei and Simon Rabinovitch

BEIJING, Nov 14 (Reuters) - China's capital spending was slightly lower than expected in October, consistent with weakness in a batch of data this week as Beijing battles to keep the world's fourth-largest economy from slowing too sharply.

Investment in urban areas in fixed assets such as roads and factories rose 27.2 percent in the first 10 months of the year compared with the same period in 2007, down from 27.6 percent in the first three quarters, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

The rise was slightly below expectations, which centred on an increase of 27.5 percent.

Public works will receive a boost from the government's new 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan, but the jury is out on whether it will be enough to fill the gap left by a downturn in the property market and factory production, which together account for more than half of capital investment.

"Next year we'll see a major deceleration of fixed-asset investment," said Jun Ma, chief economist for greater China with Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong.

"The government stimulus can offset part of the deceleration of developers and manufacturers, but it's unable to fully offset it," he said.

The government did not publish a figure for fixed-asset investment growth for October alone, but Goldman Sachs estimated it rose 24.1 percent over a year earlier, the slowest of any month this year.

The investment data followed a slew of indicators this week that pointed southward for the Chinese economy.

Industrial output fizzled to its weakest pace in seven years, rising 8.2 percent in October from a year earlier. Import growth slowed and inflation fell to a 17-month low as domestic demand cooled. Sales of retail goods, from furniture to cosmetics, also deteriorated.

China faces a major challenge to keep its economy on track, Mu Hong, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top planning body, said on Friday.

"You just mentioned that many people are worried about the Chinese economy. I'm also worried about it," Mu told a news conference to give details about the stimulus plan.

China's annual GDP increase slowed to 9.0 percent in the third quarter from 10.1 percent in the second quarter, putting the economy in line for single-digit growth in 2008 after five straight years of double-digit expansion.

STIMULUS

The stimulus package will direct an infusion of cash toward road, rail and airport projects to boost domestic demand and counter the impact of the global financial crisis.

The government intends to spend an extra 100 billion yuan this quarter, catalysing an additional 300 billion yuan of investment throughout the country.

"Thanks to a healthy fiscal surplus and low government debt, China has the resources to ramp up fiscal spending in a short period of time," Jing Ulrich, head of China equities at J.P. Morgan, said in a note.

"The accelerated implementation of priority infrastructure projects, such as railway and power grid expansion, should provide support for FAI growth in the coming months," she said.

Fixed-asset investment, which rose 25.8 percent in 2007, has been the main driver of China's economy in recent years.

"The year-on-year FAI growth rate is likely to keep falling in the next couple of months," said Li Mingliang, a Haitong Securities analyst in Shanghai.

"With the central government's plan to boost domestic demand and stimulate the economy, the deceleration pace might be tamed," he said. (Additional reporting by Zhou Xin; Editing by Ken Wills)

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