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U.S. oil futures fluctuate ahead of Fed, supply data

Published 10/28/2014, 04:59 AM
U.S. oil futures swing between gains and losses ahead of Fed, weekly supply data
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Investing.com - U.S. oil futures fluctuated between small gains and losses on Tuesday, as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting as well as weekly supply data from the U.S.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December fell 3 cents, or 0.04%, to trade at $80.97 a barrel during European morning hours.

Prices held in a narrow range between $80.37 and $81.15 a barrel.

Futures were likely to find support at $79.44 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at $81.95 a barrel, the high from October 24.

The Fed was likely to announce the conclusion of its asset purchasing stimulus program, known as quantitative easing on Wednesday, but was also expected to reassure markets that interest rates will remain on hold for some time to come.

Investors will be scrutinizing the Fed's statement for indications about a possible rate hike and its view on the global economy.

Data on Monday showing that German business confidence fell to the lowest level since December 2012 this month added to fears over the outlook for fourth quarter growth in the euro area’s largest economy.

Recent signs of a slowdown in growth in Europe and China fuelled speculation the U.S. central bank could stick to its cautious outlook on monetary policy and delay possible rate hikes.

Market players looked ahead to the release of key U.S. data later in the session for further indications on the strength of the economy.

The U.S. was to release data on durable goods orders for September as well as a report by the Conference Board on consumer confidence for October.

Data on Monday showed U.S. services sector activity in October slowed to a six-month low, while pending home sales in September rose less than expected, dampening optimism over the strength of the economy.

Meanwhile, oil traders awaited the release of fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

The American Petroleum Institute will release its inventories report later in the day, while Wednesday’s government report could show crude stockpiles rose by 3.5 million barrels in the week ended October 24.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent for December delivery dipped 20 cents, or 0.23%, to hit $85.63 a barrel.

London-traded Brent prices have fallen nearly 26% since June, when it climbed near $116, while WTI futures are down almost 25% from a recent peak of $107.50 in June.

Concerns over weakening global demand combined with indications that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will not cut output to support oil markets have weighed on prices in recent weeks.

Some market analysts believe that only a cut in production by the oil cartel will halt the decline in prices.

Oil ministers from the 12-member group are scheduled to meet in Vienna on November 27 to consider whether to adjust their production target for early 2015.

Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast for Brent by $15 to $85 in the first quarter of next year in a report released Monday.

The investment bank expects West Texas Intermediate prices to average $75 a barrel, down from a previous estimate of $90.

Goldman analysts expect WTI to fall as low as $70 a barrel and Brent to $80 in the second quarter of 2015, when it expects oversupply to be most pronounced.

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