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FOREX-Euro off 2-mth high vs dollar, Ireland in focus

Published 01/24/2011, 04:13 AM
Updated 01/24/2011, 04:15 AM

* Euro retreats from 2-month high against dollar

* Rally on Trichet comments loses steam, market eyes Ireland

* Euro's new year rally clears speculator shorts -CFTC data

(Adds comment, updates throughout; previous TOKYO)

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The euro backed off a two-month high against the dollar on Monday after an early burst of buying ran out of steam, while political turmoil in Ireland highlighted uncertainties facing heavily indebted euro zone countries.

Tough talk on inflation pressures from European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet on Sunday helped to push the euro as high as $1.3648, its strongest since late November, but a lack of follow-through demand knocked the single currency back down.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Trichet said core inflation was not a good gauge of future price pressures and that the central bank was ensuring higher energy prices do not seep into other prices.

Investors also followed developments in Ireland after the resignation of Prime Minister Brian Cowan as leader of the Fianna Fail party has plunged the country, which has sought a bailout from the EU and the IMF, into political turmoil. "The euro's rise was driven by stop-losses, and once those were taken out there were no more bids in the market," said Anders Soderberg, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

Yet he added that while the euro may enter a consolidation phase in the near term, it was likely resume its climb. Market participants have said sovereign interest in the euro has been a key driver in the euro's rally since earlier in the month. "To make the euro come off even more, you have to get weak euro zone countries come back into focus, or signs that the U.S. economy is improving strongly, raising speculation of higher rates there," Soderberg said.

The euro has rallied some 6 percent in the past two weeks thanks to a mixture of demand from Asian central banks, easing worries over euro zone debt and increasing international support for the euro zone's rescue plan.

In early Europe, the euro slipped 0.3 percent on the day to a session low around $1.3565, with traders citing selling demand from a German name as pushing the single currency lower.

It was flat against the yen at 112.56 yen, off a two-month high around 112.80 yen hit in earlier trade.

Some in the market said the euro found support after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was quoted in a German newspaper on Sunday as saying the government wants to deliver a a comprehensive euro debt rescue package soon.

Others said political turmoil Ireland raised concerns of whether the government would be able to approve key financial legislation, and when a next election would be called. Such uncertain may weigh on the euro in the near term, some said.

"The macro-political circumstances in Ireland are evidence that we still have a very long way to go before the degree of political and economic cooperation amongst euro area governments can be described as 'unshakable'," analysts at Schneider FX said in a note.

The euro's broad rally has resulted in a clearing out of short positions in the single currency, or bets the currency would depreciate.

The latest CFTC data show IMM positions held by speculators shifted to 4,109 net long contracts last week, versus 45,182 net shorts the previous week.

"After speculators flip their positionings, they tend to build up more of their new positions for some time. So the euro still looks to be on a rising trend to me," said a trader at a Japanese bank in Tokyo.

The euro held above key resistance around $1.3570, a 50 percent retracement of its decline from November to early this month. The next target is $1.3740, a 61.8 percent retracement of its decline from November to early this month.

But the pullback in the euro on Monday helped to support the dollar, which rose 0.3 percent to 82.87 yen, while the U.S. currency rose 0.2 percent versus a currency basket. (Additional reporting by Tokyo Forex Team; Editing by Toby Chopra) ((naomi.tajitsu@reuters.com; +44 207 542 5830; Reuters Messaging: naomi.tajitsu.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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