(For other news from the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit, click http://www.reuters.com/summit/InvestmentOutlookDec10 )
By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent
LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - RCM Chief Investment Officer Andreas Utermann said he expected global equities to gain between 8 and 12 percent next year and that emerging market currencies are set to appreciate significantly.
But he said he was steering well clear of benchmark government bonds with maturities of longer than 4 to 5 years, believing them to be an "accident waiting to happen". Speaking on Tuesday at the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit, Utermann was cautiously bullish about riskier assets next year and suggested that investors had not properly factored in a solid improvement in the global economy, including the United States.
"Despite the trend being very clearly positive, much of the commentary, the behaviour of markets has been not to accept that but to explain that away with special factors," he said.
Utermann said that one result of this was that while his firm was positioning itself for equity gains of 8 to 12 percent overall, there was a better chance of bigger gains than lower ones.
"The markets are in a too defensive mode relative to the underlying improvements we have seen in the last 12 months," he said at the summit, held at the Reuters office in London.
Utermann said, however, that 2011 would not be smooth, but would have the same roller coaster tendencies as this year. But plentiful liquidity and good earnings would lift equities.
He particularly looked towards developed market companies that have a solid exposure to emerging markets, saying that investing in actual emerging market stocks was a "crowded trade".
FX AND BONDS
RCM was also looking for appreciation in emerging market currencies.
"Emerging market currencies will do best, followed by the euro, followed by the dollar. (It) is very difficult to forecast what the yen will do. We know what it should do, depreciate," he said.
"The dollar will be volatile to the euro for much of 2011, a continued depreciation against the background of a hopefully receding government debt crisis in Europe." Overall, Utermann believes developed market bond yields are too low and may start to back up next year. This was mainly because the world economy is improving and long-term savers need higher yields than are on offer.
"We are going to have to get used to rising long-term yields. How else are you going to get the long-term savings returns you need?"
Turning to the current crisis in euro zone government debt, Utermann said markets were pricing too great a chance of default.
He did not believe there would be a default or a "haircut" for investors -- formally trimming a percentage off their returns -- but even if there was, yields now are too high.
"If you thought there should be haircuts ... then a 10 to 15 to 20 percent haircut would be very significantly sufficient to resolve the debt issue," Utermann said. "Some of these (recent) positions are implying 30 to 40 to 50 percent haircuts.
"That's just ridiculous," he said.
Utermann said it remained too volatile a situation for institutional investors to get involved yet but he himself had bought some peripheral euro zone debt for tactical gains.
RCM is a part of Allianz Global Investors and has some 100 billion euros in assets under management. (For summit blog: http://blogs.reuters.com/summits/) (For more on the Reuters 2011 investment outlook Summit, see) (Additional reporting by Carolyn Cohn; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)