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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 26-30

Published 04/25/2010, 10:55 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com – The euro plummeted to a 1-year low against the U.S. dollar last week, after Greece sought financial aid in the wake of a downgrade of the debt-laden country's sovereign rating.

After EUR/USD hit 1.3201 on Friday, its lowest since April 30 last year, the pair clawed back up to reach 1.3384 at the close of trade, amid hopes that the EU-IMF rescue would resolve Greece's debt crisis. On a weekly basis, EUR/USD lost 0.79%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3201, Friday's low, and resistance at 1.3692, the high of April 12.

On Saturday, finance leaders raced to secure aid for Greece amid fears that the euro zone member's turmoil could spark a broader crisis with state debt and must be cut off before it spreads to other economies in the 16-nation region, such as Portugal and Spain.

Further developments in talks over Greece's request for aid are likely to impact EUR/USD, since additional waves of risk aversion – such as that seen last week – are likely to make traders flee to the greenback in search of a safe haven.

Next week, a number of euro zone economic reports are set to be released. These will cover German unemployment, retail sales, consumer climate and inflation; and money supply, unemployment and inflation in the entire 16-nation region. The president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, is also set to make comments at a number of public engagements

The U.S. Federal Reserve, meanwhile, is set to make a key interest rate decision, which will be accompanied by a closely watched statement. The chairman of Fed, Ben Bernanke, is due to testify in Washington. Also next week, important economic data are due to be published in the United States on unemployment claims, consumer confidence and GDP.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect EUR/USD.

Monday, April 26

Trichet is due to begin the week by delivering a speech titled "Global Convergence Today" at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Traders are likely to scrutinize his comments for clues to future shifts in monetary policy.

Tuesday, April 27

The Gfk research group will publish a survey of the consumer climate in Germany, the euro zone's largest economy. At the same time, Germany will publish monthly data on import prices. Later in the day, Trichet is set to speak about public policy and economics at the Kellog School of Management in Evanston.

Research groups Standard & Poor's and Case-Shiller will later publish a U.S. house price index, which measures the change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas.

Later in the day, another research group, the Conference Board, will publish a closely watched index measuring U.S. consumer confidence. Bernanke, meanwhile, is set to testify before the before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform in Washington D.C.

Wednesday, April 28

Germany will publish a monthly report on consumer price inflation. The report, a preliminary consumer price index estimate, is the earliest major data on inflation in the euro zone.

Also Wednesday, The Fed will announce its decision on its benchmark interest rate and release a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee, within which the U.S. economic outlook will be discussed.

Thursday, April 29

Germany will publish data on the change in the number of unemployed workers, an important signal of the labor market and overall economic health.

The ECB will later release annual reports on M3 money supply, the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks, and on private loans, the change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector. Trichet is later due to speak at a summit in Munich.

The U.S. Labor Department, meanwhile, will publish data on initial jobless claims, an important signal of overall economic health.

Friday, April 30

Germany will release a monthly report on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending. The EU statistics agency, Eurostat, will later publish a preliminary annual estimate of consumer price inflation in the euro zone, and data on the region's unemployment rate.

The U.S. will publish a preliminary estimate of its quarterly gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, and of the change in the price of all goods and services included in the GDP. A survey of purchasing managers in the Chicago area is also due to be published, as is a University of Michigan report on U.S. consumer sentiment.

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