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UPDATE 2-Japan machinery orders slide as crisis hits firms

Published 12/09/2008, 10:58 PM

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By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Japanese core machinery orders slid and orders from abroad tumbled in October in another sign companies are slashing investment in response to a global demand slump, pointing to a deep and long recession in Japan.

Annual wholesale price inflation slowed further in November as oil and other commodity prices fell, and Japanese firms started to cut prices charged to consumers, raising the spectre of deflation.

Corporate investment has driven Japan's growth in recent years but is expected to slow now that major exporters such as Sony Corp are curbing production and cutting jobs to cope with a global downturn.

"In anticipation of a sharp fall in U.S. demand, Asian manufacturers, including subsidiaries of Japanese firms, are reducing production at an unprecedented pace," said Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research.

The United States, Japan and the euro zone are all in recession and growth is slowing in emerging economies such as China.

However, Japan's Nikkei average rose 1.1 percent on Wednesday since investors had already factored in weak machinery orders and were relieved there was no negative surprise.

Core private-sector machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital spending, fell 4.4 percent, only slightly below a median market forecast for a 3.9 percent fall.

For a graphic on the machinery orders data, click on: https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/JP_MCHORD1208.jpg

Orders from foreign operators dived 37.2 percent in October, the second largest fall on record, showing how the implosion in global markets since mid-September has disrupted economic activity around the globe.

"The sharp drop in external demand indicates that the appetite for corporate capital outlays is declining globally," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

The numbers reinforced expectations that Japan's export-driven economy, which contracted during the two quarters until September, will keep shrinking at least until the first quarter of next year.

That would mark a postwar-record four straight quarters of decline.

The government is likely to issue its bleakest assessment of the economy in nearly seven years this month, downgrading its official view to say conditions are worsening, the Yomiuri paper reported.

As corporate activity is slowing sharply, annual wholesale inflation, as measured by the corporate goods price index (CGPI), fell to 2.8 percent in November from a 5.0 percent increase in the year to October.

That was below a median market forecast for a 3.0 percent increase and there were hints of slight deflation. Policymakers around the world are fretting about the threat of deflation, which Japan knows all too well, having spend a decade fighting steadily falling prices and economic stagnation.

The final goods price index for November, which tracks prices charged to consumers, fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier, the Bank of Japan data showed.

"Prices of final goods are starting to fall. That will probably spill over to consumer prices in the future," said Seiji Adachi, senior economist at Deutsche Securities.

Many economists expect consumer price inflation to turn slightly negative in the middle of next year.

(Additional reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Sophie Hardach)

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