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FOREX-Yen holds firm, Aussie supported before China data

Published 03/09/2010, 10:22 PM
Updated 03/09/2010, 10:24 PM

* China data expected to show strong export growth

* Yen supported by talk of repatriation flows

* Euro, pound subdued on fiscal worries

By Satomi Noguchi

TOKYO, March 10 (Reuters) - The yen held firm on Wednesday on expectations of a pick up in Japanese repatriation flows before the end of the financial year, while the Australian dollar was supported ahead of trade data from China.

Traders said Japanese exporters have sold the euro and the dollar this week, repatriating some of their overseas earnings in the run-up to the fiscal year-end on March 31.

But yen gains were limited by speculation that the Bank of Japan may take additional steps to ease monetary policy as it remains under government pressure to help pull the country out of grinding deflation.

Eyes are now on Chinese trade data for February due later in the day with analysts forecasting a near 40 percent rise in exports.

Traders said that if the numbers disappoint, they could hurt demand for commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Currency market reaction could be complicated by what the data implies for possible Chinese moves to tighten monetary conditions, some other traders said.

"Many market players are up for buying the Aussie on dips, especially when people are reluctant to buy other currencies like the euro over worries about Europe's fiscal health," said a senior sales trader for a Japanese bank.

"But the impact of Chinese data on the market and the Aussie is hard to read these days because strong numbers could add to concerns about China tightening monetary steps," said a senior sales trader for a Japanese bank.

The dollar was steady around 90 yen, having lost over 0.3 percent on Tuesday. Support for the greenback is seen around the 89.30 yen level, which forms the base of the Ichimoku cloud.

The euro also drifted sideways around 122.30, having lost nearly 0.6 percent on Tuesday.

The BOJ is likely to debate easing its ultra-loose monetary policy again at its board meeting on March 16-17, after introducing a new funding operation in December under a previous wave of government pressure as the yen climbed versus the dollar.

After the BOJ adopted a new fund-supply operation in December in the wake of the yen's climb to a 14-year high of 84.82 yen, the Japanese currency fell as far as 93.78 yen against the dollar in early January. But it later resumed rising, advancing as much as 88.14 yen last week.

"The biggest risk for the yen is that the BOJ offers nothing new at the end of its meeting next week. That could send the yen higher on disappointment," said the sales trader at a Japanese bank.

The Aussie earlier broke past resistance at $0.9150 to trade as high as $0.9160, which was its highest level since January 20.

The Aussie's gains were helped by comments from a senior Australian central banker, saying that while global risks were worth watching, the central case remained positive for Asia and Australia. It stood at $0.9150, flat on the day, after a brief drop as investors booked profits.

The kiwi was up 0.3 percent to $0.7051, having gained nearly 0.4 percent on Tuesday.

The euro and the pound were subdued on fresh worries about Europe's fiscal health. The euro eased 0.1 percent against the U.S. dollar, trading around $1.3590.

The common currency had come under fresh pressure after the Fitch ratings agency said it still has a negative outlook on Portugal's credit rating.

That fed concerns that peripheral euro zone economies may face debt problems similar to those of Greece, where a fiscal crisis has led investors to flee the euro in past weeks.

The pound was struggling below $1.5000, having been hit by weak data, and fears around Britain's sovereign rating as well as the credit ratings of its banks.

Sterling has lost more than 7 percent this year on concerns Britain will be stuck in political deadlock after the May election. (Additional Reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney: Editing by Joseph Radford)

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