* WHAT: Australian central bank interest rate decision
* WHEN: Tuesday, March 2, 2:30 p.m. (0330 GMT)
* 12 of 18 economists in Reuters poll see rate hike to 4 pct
* Market sees 60-40 chance of a rise
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, March 1 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank is likely to resume raising rates on Tuesday in the face of upbeat economic data, but a sizeable minority of economists and investors are betting it could pause again.
Part of the reason why investors are uncertain whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise rates this month is because many were burnt after it stunned markets by skipping a hike at its February meeting.
The RBA became the first central bank in Asia-Pacific to rise interest rates following the global crisis, lifting them in October, November and December. The central bank does not meet in January.
Governor Glenn Stevens said at the February review that policymakers wanted to access the impact of the previous three rate hikes, with concerns about sovereign debt risks in Greece and Dubai playing at the margins. The RBA raised the cash rate by 75 basis points to 3.75 percent between October and December.
CASH RATE TO RISE TO 4 PERCENT
Recent data has been on the stronger side, suggesting that the economy is recovering at a much faster pace than expected. Crucially, employment has been far stronger than expected rising by almost 200,000 in the past five months and driving the unemployment rate down to 5.3 percent, half that of many western nations. Capital spending by companies is rising, the country's terms of trade is on an upswing and house prices are on the way up. Of the 18 economists polled by Reuters, 12 expect the RBA to lift its cash rate 25 basis points to 4.0 percent. Six think it will pause for the second straight month. The cash rate is seen reaching at 4.75 percent by year-end. [AU/INT]
All in all, consumer and business confidence are both buoyant and back Governor Stevens' argument that rates cannot stay too low for long.
At a testimony to lawmakers last month, Stevens said that lending rates were still 50-100 basis points below normal and, that as the economy returned towards normal, so too would rates.
The market is now pricing in around a 60-40 chance
Bolstering speculation that the RBA would raise rates on Tuesday was a column from influential central bank watcher Terry Mcrann, who wrote that rates will almost certainly be raised.
* Probability: likely
* Market impact: Since markets were reluctant to price in
more of a chance of a rate hike, bill and bond futures are
likely to be sold off, especially those at the near end of the
curve. The Australian dollar
CASH RATE STEADY AT 3.75 PERCENT
The RBA could still a pause for a second straight month in its tightening cycle. As Stevens pointed out last month, since the RBA was ahead of game, they could afford to wait and receive more information on how the economy was responding to the tightening.
Besides, the RBA is concerned that local lenders have raised their mortgage rates far more aggressively than the cash rate has been lifted.
And globally, concerns over the sovereign debt problems in Greece, Spain and Portugal have intensified. On the other side of the Atlantic, the U.S. economy continues to recover slowly and there have been falls in U.S. consumer sentiment and leading indicators of employment.
In China, the authorities have taken steps to cool areas of the economy, most notably the property market, where there have been signs of imbalances. Steps have included the Chinese central bank increasing the reserve requirement ratio on banks.
Any possible slowing in China is bad news for Australia. The Asian powerhouse is Australia's biggest trading partner and a key buyer of Australian coal and iron ore.
* Probability: slightly less likely
* Market impact: Bill and bond futures are expected to rally and the Aussie likely to fall as the prospect of a hike had been helping offset the latest bout of global risk aversion. A hawkish accompanying statement might offer some support at the margin. (Editing by Kazunori Takada)