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GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro slips on Greece doubts; Dubai fears rise

Published 02/15/2010, 11:22 AM
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* MSCI world equity index steady at 283.20

* Euro near 9-mth low as more EU clarity sought on Greece

* Dubai CDS soar on debt restructuring uncertainty

By Natsuko Waki

LONDON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The euro slipped towards last week's nine-month low against the dollar on Tuesday as investors grew increasingly nervous about the absence of any quick bailout package for Greece from euro zone finance ministers.

Concerns were also intensifying over the debt restructuring of state-owned conglomerate Dubai World, which pushed the cost of insuring Dubai sovereign debt against default 11-month highs.

The premium investors demand to buy 10-year government bonds in Portugal and Ireland -- other highly indebted euro countries -- rather than German benchmarks rose.

At a meeting in Brussels on Monday euro zone finance ministers exerted more pressure on Greece to implement planned budget deficit cuts and some stressed that Greece itself must solve its own problems.

World stocks held steady in trading thinned by holidays in China and the United States. They posted its first weekly gain in a month last week, supported by expectations interest rates will stay low, especially in the euro zone where governments are coming under pressure to withdraw fiscal support.

"The economic backdrop is still favourable for equities," said Tammo Greetfeld, equity strategist at UniCredit in Munich.

"However, a big risk is the situation in Greece. We are a long way off from a situation where the underlying causes of current tensions are solved and there remains a significant risk that, further down the road, the tension will rise again." The MSCI index <.MIWD00000PUS> was unchanged on the day, after posting its first weekly gain in a month last week. The FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> gained 0.3 percent with banks such as HSBC and Barclays leading the way. Emerging stocks <.MSCIEF> rose 0.3 percent.

The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.3591 , having fallen as low as $1.3529 on Friday. The dollar <.DXY> was unchanged against a basket of major currencies.

European Union leaders said last week the euro zone would take determined and coordinated action if necessary to safeguard financial stability, a vague pledge which disappointed investors.

Finnish Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen told Reuters Insider television on Monday that Greece must get the money it needs from the market. He added that if some EU countries can help Greece bilaterally it was up to them but not the EU as a whole.

Greek markets are shut for a holiday but five-year credit default swaps -- measuring the cost of insuring sovereign debt against default -- stood at 352 basis points on Friday. Commerzbank said the level of CDS pointed to a default probability of 21 percent.

"The failure of a bailout (attempt) ... cannot be excluded completely," Commerzbank said.

"We do not consider the danger of this happening to be very strong, the fear of such a scenario alone should however put considerable depreciation pressure on the euro."

Figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed speculators had amassed record short positions in the euro, essentially betting it had further to fall. [ID:nN12122806]

U.S. crude oil rose 0.2 percent to $74.28 a barrel.

The Bund futures fell 13 ticks.

SECOND WAVE OF DUBAI CRISIS?

Dubai's five-year CDS rose as high as 652 basis points, according to CDS monitor CMA DataVision, above the high reached after the Dubai government announced a standstill on debt held by Dubai World [DBWLD.UL] in November.

The conglomerate is in talks with banks on the debt delay -- about $22 billion linked to its main property units Nakheel and Limitless World -- but bankers say it has yet to present a formal proposal.

Nervousness over the fate of the debt grew, however, after Dow Jones reported it was mulling a two-part deal, including one that may repay lenders 60 percent over seven years.

Dubai denied the report on Sunday but investors, already spooked by a lack of information on the company's plans to repay the debt, reacted with dismay to the reported proposal.

(Additional reporting by Atul Prakash; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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