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Trade Desk Thoughts:
Dollar Index, Commodity, and Equity Outlook
Nine days of relentless pressure on U.S. equities dropped prices down to test areas not seen since Nov 09, and Oct 08 before that. Wall Street stocks closed at the low of the day, the low of the week, and low of the month, in a move that reflected a complete disregard for positive macroeconomics, and positive earnings reports, ahead of another huge week of red flag releases.
The Usd was bought in the move to the safety of Usd based Treasuries, however the dollar index components did not move as one. Traders now have separation in regard to the differing percentage moves that are being made on each pair, as well as now needing to now carefully monitor the red flag economic releases that are likely to set the next substantial dollar based moves in play.
Dollar Index
The 4 hour trend is long, as the global markets re-connect the dots and tenuously buy the Usd in-line with the selling of stocks and commodities. The 4 hour global market trends are favoring the short side of risk, and the long side of the dollar. Near-term price action on the dollar index components are very ugly and are not for those with a weak constitution.
Crude Oil
The 4 hour trend is short. Oil was recently trading at $74 per barrel after containing the selling seen in the previous sessions. Price action dropped down to test daily chart support at 72.50, but could not hold there. The long speculative interest in crude oil trade banked profit recently and in doing so aided the long side of Usd near-term buying. Favor a straddle.
S&P Futures
The 4 hour trend is short across the global equity market. The latest global cash sessions saw further selling in Asia, but with very low momentum after five sessions of relentless selling pressure. European futures trade attempted to move sentiment higher, and now Wall Street has its turn. The Usd is not moving up at the same percentage rate that stocks are moving down, and that may allow a short dollar play if equities find buyers.
Gold Bullion
The 4 hour trend is neutral. Gold Bullion has easily held below $1,100, however, the precious metal is easily holding 1070 support. Over the last week of trade, gold has lost as much as $45, following the equity markets lower. To the downside, the next important support area is at $1065.00.
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