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ANALYSTS' VIEW 2-Repercussions on Asia of Obama's win

Published 11/04/2008, 11:32 PM
Updated 11/04/2008, 11:34 PM

BEIJING, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election is likely to have major repercussions on relations with Asia. Here are some analysts' views on how they expect an Obama administration to affect ties.

CHINA

Jia Qingguo, expert on relations with the U.S. at Peking University:

"I don't think an Obama administration will make big changes in policy towards China. But there will be a shift in emphasis to more pressure on trade and currency issues, as well as human rights and the environment and climate change. I expect there'll be less friction over China as a traditional security threat.

"I don't think we'll see the usual lift in tensions (at the start of the administration). The international economic situation won't allow for that. Because the Democrats have been out of power for so long, there will be some friction, simply because they lack the familiarity with policy and mutual understandings that developed under eight years of Bush."

Shen Dingli, international security analyst at Fudan University in Shanghai:

"He is our man, I think. China wants to solve problems through international cooperation. The new president will create much more space for international cooperation than under Bush.

"Trade and fairness issues are going to be one point of contention, but overall this creates more opportunities for the two countries to cooperate."

INDIA

C. Uday Bhaskar, strategic analyst in New Delhi:

"While Mr Obama represents change in the U.S., for the U.S.-India bilateral relationship, the big change has already taken place over the nuclear issue." (The Bush administration reached an agreement with India over nuclear energy cooperation). "India-United States relations till recently were shaped by the nuclear issue, the next big ticket item is countering terrorism and state support to this phenomenon."

SOUTH KOREA

Kim Sung-Han, professor of international relations at Korea University in Seoul:

"For the past several years, the Bush administration was preoccupied with Iraq and the Middle East. In the meantime, China has approached Southeast Asia and has been established as the champion of Asian multilateralism and regionalism.

"Obama needs to pay more attention to Asia. He will put more emphasis on Asian policy, particularly the regionalist policy. And the other (priorities) are pretty obvious such as China, Japan and South Korean policy, with China being high on the agenda."

Chun Bong-geun, expert at Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security in Seoul, affiliated with the Foreign Ministry, said progress was expected in negotiations on the nuclear issue and also for Korea peace talks.

"Looking from his reaction to terrorism delisting, Obama has indicated a more active engagement in dialogue with North Korea. For him, dialogue itself is not an incentive and reward for the North, as it was for Bush and even Clinton, but dialogue is meant to solve problems.

"But if Obama tries to focus on human rights, dialogue could get bogged down again."

- - - - (Reporting by Chris Buckley in Beijing, Jon Herskovitz in Seoul; Editing by Nick Macfie)

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