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ANALYSTS' VIEW-Repercussions on Asia of Obama's win

Published 11/04/2008, 11:02 PM
Updated 11/04/2008, 11:04 PM

BEIJING, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's victory in the U.S. presidential election is likely to have major repercussions on relations with Asia. Here are some analysts' views on how they expect an Obama administration to affect ties.

CHINA

Jia Qingguo, expert on relations with the U.S. at Peking University:

"I don't think an Obama administration will make big changes in policy towards China. But there will be a shift in emphasis to more pressure on trade and currency issues, as well as human rights and the environment and climate change. I expect there'll be less friction over China as a traditional security threat.

"I don't think we'll see the usual lift in tensions (at the start of the administration). The international economic situation won't allow for that. Because the Democrats have been out of power for so long, there will be some friction, simply because they lack the familiarity with policy and mutual understandings that developed under eight years of Bush."

SOUTH KOREA

Kim Sung-Han, professor of international relations at Korea University in Seoul:

"For the past several years, the Bush administration was preoccupied with Iraq and the Middle East. In the meantime, China has approached Southeast Asia and has been established as the champion of Asian multilateralism and regionalism.

"Obama needs to pay more attention to Asia. He will put more emphasis on Asian policy, particularly the regionalist policy. And the other (priorities) are pretty obvious such as China, Japan and South Korean policy, with China being high on the agenda."

Kwak Byung-ryel of Daishin Securities in Seoul, in a research note:

"Obama is expected to go further than the Bush administration's removal of North Korea from the terrorism blacklist. This is a positive factor in that it will greatly alleviate geopolitical risks on the Korean peninsula and promote economic cooperation between the two Koreas.

"Obama's trade policy could take a slight turn toward protectionism. With his caution against expanding car exports from South Korea and his mention of possibly renegotiating the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, South Korea is expected to see a switch of fortunes depending on what stance he takes."

- - - - (Reporting by Chris Buckley; Editing by Nick Macfie)

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