By Manuela Badawy
NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Wall Street investors are happy holding Uruguayan assets even though presidential candidate Jose Mujica, a former guerrilla chief, is leading the polls to become the next leader of the South American country.
Uruguay will hold elections on Oct. 25 and will choose between Mujica, a folksy 74-year-old senator who was jailed for 14 years during a military dictatorship, and Luis Lacalle, a center-right candidate who was president from 1990 to 1995.
Matthew Ryan, portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management in Boston said investors have been "somewhat" concerned about Mujica, "because he is a bit of an unknown and his past raises some questions."
But Mujica's decision to put former economy minister Danilo Astori on the ticket as his running mate and give him the economic portfolio has helped soothe investor worries.
"Investors have taken some comfort in that the expected new economy minister is going to be picked by the former economy minister, so generally they are expecting continuity in terms of financial policy," said David Rolley, co-head of global fixed income at Loomis Sayles & Co in Boston.
Astori, who under current leftist President Tabare Vazquez followed market-friendly policies that produced five years of growth, has given Wall Street the confidence to remain invested in what many call "the Switzerland of South America."
Uruguay's economy, dependent on agriculture and services, grew at an average of 5.7 percent in the past five years and is likely to grow 1.3 percent in 2009, more than neighbors Brazil and Argentina, according to government forecasts.
Uruguay, a founding member of Mercosur, the Southern Cone trading bloc also composed of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay, has diversified its trade in recent years and reduced its long-standing dependency on Argentina and Brazil.
This has allowed Uruguay to avoid much of the global financial downturn, according to officials at the Economy Ministry. The economy is expected to grow in the second half of 2009 after advancing 1.5 percent in the first half, supported by construction, communication and transportation services.
"Uruguay will not go into recession unlike many countries in the region," Alvaro Inchauspe, director of Private Sector Development, told investors this week at the Council of the Americas in New York.
BETTING ON BONDS
Foreign direct investment has multiplied nearly tenfold, rising from $300 million a year in the early 2000s to $2.2 billion in 2008, and exports have tripled in the past six years, mostly in agriculture and agri-industry products.
However, Moody's Economy.com said in a report that Uruguay could face a budget deficit of 2.8 percent of GDP in 2010 if Mujica wins, as he is likely to increase social spending and he has proposed to cut the sales tax by 2 percent.
Investors are not too concerned about the leadership, instead they will be awaiting the 2010 budget and confirmation of Mujica's encouraging signals.
"I am not expecting a huge change in policy whoever wins," said Jerome Booth, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management in London.
"This is the country that lent money to Britain and France in World War Two. Britain restructured the debt they owed Uruguay and France defaulted. Actual default hasn't happened in 150 years," Booth said.
Uruguay is home to 3.4 million people, of whom half live in the capital Montevideo, has the lowest level of corruption, the strongest democracy, the best labor value for money, and the highest internet, broadband and personal computer penetration in Latin America, Inchauspe said.
Despite the volatility that presidential elections bring to markets, investors are holding onto their Uruguayan sovereign bonds, which are illiquid but provide a good return on investment.
So far this year investors have gained 28.5 percent on their initial investment, according to JP Morgan data, outperforming main credits such as Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Colombia and Panama.
And yet, investors say that in the past month the most traded global bonds, those maturing at later dates such as the 2022, 2033 and 2036, have underperformed compared to their peers ahead of the elections -- creating a good opportunity to buy.
"At current levels we have no intention of selling, Uruguay presents good value," MFS's Ryan said. "It has been an overweight in our portfolios and we are more encouraged by the prospects of policy continuity." (Reporting by Manuela Badawy; Editing by Andrea ricci)