* Russian c.bank has succeeded in stabilising rouble
* Has left itself room to change policy with oil price
* Main risks: fiscal drain on reserves; big oil price drop
By Toni Vorobyova
MOSCOW, March 26 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank can take credit for successfully adjusting the rouble to the worst economic outlook in a decade and leaving itself room for manoeuvre by effectively pegging the currency's fate to oil.
The rouble is on track for record monthly gains versus a euro-dollar basket, basking in the glow of rising oil prices. That is a marked turnaround for a currency which had lost around a third of its value in six months.
The central bank has resumed currency market interventions. But after spending around a third of its reserves, or $200 billion, since August on controlling the rouble's slide it is now buying back foreign currency to keep a lid on rouble gains.
Risks remain, notably pressure to spend reserve funds on pulling the economy out of recession and the potential for another sharp dive in the oil price. But "the fact that since February there are no devaluation expectations, yes, that is to the credit of the central bank. It sufficiently weakened the rouble and then gave a clear signal that it will hold the exchange rate at least in the near term," said Stanislav Ponomarenko, head of Russia research at ING.
The rouble traded at 38.84 versus a euro-dollar basket on Thursday, over 5 percent away from the weaker end of the 26 to 41 trading range the central bank pledged to defend when it sought to draw a line under devaluation two months ago.
One-year non-deliverable forwards (NDFs), a key barometer of market expectations, show the rouble at 38.18 per dollar, compared with 43.12 in mid-February.
Russian officials have presented a united front on the rouble, with both Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin saying they approve the policy of the central bank, despite vociferous criticism from analysts.
Russians clearly remember the rouble losing two-thirds of its value versus the dollar during the last financial crisis in 1998, so avoiding public panic is a key political priority. Central Bank Chairman Sergei Ignatyev said on Wednesday that capital outflows have stopped this month, after slowing to $4.5 billion in February from $29 billion in January. Investors are even slowly thinking of returning.
Urals, Russia's main oil export blend, this week touched $50 a barrel for the first time since November, well above the $41 factored into the 2009 government forecasts and budget.
"For now the central bank seems to be managing. As long as the price of oil remains at current levels, it is most likely that the basket will also be stable," said Anton Tabakh, analyst at Troika Dialog.
OIL PRICE TEST
The oil price test for the rouble could come soon - Kudrin warned on Tuesday the oil rally would likely prove temporary.
If he is correct, analysts say the risk is that Russia may return to the vicious circle of spending reserves to prop up the rouble, leaving itself with less money for other anti-crisis measures and putting its sovereign credit ratings under threat.
But the central bank has secured itself a get out clause -- it says the boundary could be rethought if the price of oil falls or rises significantly and stays at the new levels.
Unlike six months ago, Russian citizens and companies are ready to deal with a weaker currency, having had ample opportunity to convert any spare cash into dollars or euros during the early stages of the gradual rouble depreciation.
Arguably, the tens of billions of dollars spent on intervention have bought the central bank the freedom to let the exchange rate move faster in the future if necessary without running such a risk of public panic or unrest.
Their greater willingness to do this was illustrated in the final months of devaluation - in the final four weeks of depreciation the rouble lost 14 percent compared with 5-10 percent a month between November and January.
"If oil is at $30, then possibly the central bank will have to give way," said ING's Ponomarenko. "Resisting that trend will lead to the central bank once more having to spend large sums of reserves."
Another potential danger for the rouble is this year's budget which requires the transfer of 2.75 trillion roubles ($81.55 billion) from Russia's foreign currency denominated Reserve Fund to cover the deficit.
"Now the issue is not to awaken devaluation expectations through budgetary emissions," said Nikolay Kashcheev, head of economic analysis at MDM Bank.
(Additional reporting by Andrei Ostroukh; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)