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CORRECTED-ANALYSIS-No Greek-type rally for gold on Irish debt

Published 11/24/2010, 12:16 PM
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* Strength of the dollar offsets safe-haven bids

* Correlation with dollar unlikely to turn positive

* Potential for dollar buying poses threat

(Corrects typo in record high price to $1,424.10 from $1,242.10 in paragraph 5.)

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold is unlikely to see a repeat of its spring rally as Europe plunges once more into financial crisis, because a stronger dollar is creating too great a deterrent for investors seeking an alternative to the euro.

The euro zone has just agreed to a second multi-billion euro sovereign bailout as Ireland struggles to contain a sell-off of its debt that threatens its ability to finance itself and repair the damage to its banking system from an imploding property market.

Earlier this year in the weeks that followed the bailout of Greece, gold hit successive record peaks as it attracted a wave of demand that materialised in rising holdings of bullion in physically backed exchange-traded funds and growing open interest in gold futures.

Now investors again are fretting that the latest bailout will not stop a market exodus that could spread to other indebted euro zone nations such as Portugal or Spain.

But this time around, the metal has gained only 1.4 percent so far this month versus 5.7 percent in April, when the extent of Greece's problems became apparent. Its last record high of $1,424.10 an ounce was in early November before the Ireland crisis surfaced.

"If (gold) is the ultimate beneficiary of the sovereign debt crisis, you'd have expected it to be much stronger than it actually is. You'd have expected it to have spiked up by as much as bond (yields) have spiked down," said Charles Morris, head of absolute return at HSBC Global Asset Management.

RELATIONSHIP CHANGE

But the relationship between gold and the dollar is different now from it was in April and May.

In the current market, gold has maintained its traditional inverse relationship to the dollar, although their negative correlation has more than halved since October to reach its lowest level in two months.

Gold this month is up against a serious headwind in the strength of the dollar.

By contrast, the Greek crisis turned that relationship on its head as investors scrambled out of the single European currency and into any safe-haven assets they could find.

It shifted in May to one of almost perfect symmetry, with gold and the dollar moving in tandem.

This is unlikely to be the case this time around, especially after a nearly $1 trillion rescue fund was put in place in May as a lifeline to struggling economies, which has removed some of the uncertainty for euro investors.

"I'm not saying gold will directly come off in tandem with the stronger dollar, but I just don't see the potential for it to move much higher," said Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank senior manager.

Even pressure coming from heightened tensions between North and South Korea this week still might not be enough to unshackle dollar-denominated gold from the U.S. currency.

"There are strong concerns over Europe, and it's really those concerns that are pushing the dollar higher. You have two offsetting factors: a stronger dollar, which is not positive, but concerns over debt, which is positive," said Bank of America-Merrill Lynch analyst Michael Widmer.

Gold is battling not just the dollar, which is at two-month highs against a basket of currencies, but also rising U.S. Treasury yields, which are raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. It also faces a period of seasonally low liquidity and volatility as money managers square their books ahead of the end of the year.

The Federal Reserve's plan to pump over half a trillion dollars into the U.S. economy over the coming six months or so battered the dollar from late August until early November, prompting speculators to take out their most bearish bet against the U.S. currency in over two years, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

With the euro back under the kybosh, there is a risk this position could reverse completely, buoying the dollar and similarly snuffing out any potential rally in gold on the back of the euro zone debt crisis, Saxo Bank's Hansen said.

"The accumulated short in the dollar has started to decrease ... that will be reduced further. It's still in negative numbers so there are still dollar (sellers) out there that are hurting," he said.

(Editing by Jane Baird)

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