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ANALYSIS-Market fears worst for Liberty refinancing plan

Published 03/31/2009, 10:37 AM
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* May need to break up assets, offer big discounts

* Market anxious for update on refinancing plans

* Balance sheet strained by record 2008 property price crash

By Sinead Cruise

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - Liberty International faces a struggle to fill a 350 million pound ($500.5 million) funding void by selling off expensive retail property assets as Britain's thrifty real estate market balks at big-ticket deals.

The UK's largest shopping mall owner is pursuing a raft of sales to galvanise its finances, but with its cheapest malls on the books at around 200 million pounds, brokers say Liberty will have to break up assets and offer big discounts to lure buyers.

"They have a portfolio to die for but the problem is the large lot size of their assets," said David Raven, a director at broker Jones Lang LaSalle.

"Without significant debt funding, large prime assets are proving illiquid in the current market," he said.

Liberty is due to consult shareholders on Wednesday on a change in company articles related to its borrowing limits, but fears abound the agenda may be hijacked by shareholders anxious for updates on its refinancing efforts.

Last month, Chief Executive David Fischel said the company needed a minimum 350 million pounds of new capital to satisfy conditions linked to a renegotiated credit facility.

Like all its FTSE 100 real estate peers, Liberty's balance sheet has been strained by a record 27.1 percent drop in average commercial property values in 2008.

While rivals Hammerson, British Land and Land Securities raced to tap more than 2 billion pounds from the equity market last month, Liberty has stalled on similar plans amid hopes it could unlock cash tied up in its prime property.

The company owns some of Britain's most popular retail destinations including London's Covent Garden estate and nine of the UK's 30 biggest regional malls. At Dec. 31, these were valued at initial yields -- the fixed annual income generated by an asset relative to its price -- below 7 percent.

Lower yields typically indicate higher demand for a particular asset but retail investment appetite has slumped in the first quarter of 2009 amid a surge in tenant failures.

MEADOWHALL

But the handful of deals that have completed this year suggest Liberty may need to reduce its prices by tens of millions of pounds. A Liberty spokesman said the company would not comment on market speculation.

On February 9, British Land sold a 50 percent stake in its flagship Meadowhall shopping mall in Sheffield, South Yorkshire, for 588 million pounds in a deal reflecting a net initial yield of 6.75 percent.

Liberty's Lakeside mall in Thurrock, east of London, is broadly comparable in size and is on the books at 6 percent.

"One of the most unsettling indicators for Liberty is Land Securities' attempted sale of its stake in the Bullring shopping mall in Birmingham. It is widely believed that a deal priced close to a 7 percent yield failed to complete," Raven said.

Investment Property Databank's monthly UK index showed average retail property prices fell by 3.4 percent in February and values are expected to show further decline in March.

According to broker DTZ, 2008 saw the lowest volume of UK shopping centre transactions for 10 years, with around 1.45 billion pounds of deals done compared with 3.5 billion in 2007.

"You have two categories, assets below 100 million pounds and those above. There is an active market for assets below that pricetag but above that, it is a different story," said Mark Williams, head of retail capital markets at DTZ.

"It's harder to get debt and people tend to have to resort to club (financing) deals. Super prime assets remain attractive to global investors but market pricing is very different from five years ago due to a lack of domestic competition," he said.

OPTIONS OPEN

Graham Reid, a partner at law firm Reed Smith, said Liberty needed to be both inventive and realistic about its refinancing options, including selling trophies such as Covent Garden and Lakeside and striking debt-for-equity swaps.

"The banks would certainly have a debt-for-equity swap at the back of their minds. And if I was a betting man I would say that this is a likely outcome," Reid said.

Further data from research house propertydata.com shows UK companies are swallowing bigger discounts to sell property after offloading around 30 percent more assets in the first quarter of 2009 over Q4 2008 figures as pressure to cut debt intensifies.

But analysts at JPMorgan said Liberty was unlikely to prevent a rights issue even if it raided its portfolio.

"...the company may be considering a move such as a disposal of non-core assets, the U.S business, West End offices or Asian activities," the analysts said in a note to clients.

"However, whatever it may decide, it is unlikely, on our estimates, to be enough... we believe an additional equity raising or rights issue could still be on the cards." ($1=.6993 pounds) (Editing by Mike Nesbit and David Cowell)

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