* Lower global prices make India wheat exports unviable
* Govt may subsidise exports as stocks become unmanageable
* Indian wheat stocks at 33m T on July 1 vs 17m T usually
* https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/IN_WHTPRD0309.gif
By Naveen Thukral and Himangshu Watts
SINGAPORE/NEW DELHI, July 13 (Reuters) - India may be forced to subsidise wheat exports to reduce bulging stockpiles after a one-third fall in global prices since June made the country's grain less competitive.
India's plan to sell significant quantities of wheat for
the first time in 6 years comes during a second straight year
of abundant world supplies, which helped drag benchmark Chicago
Board of Trade wheat
Government agencies in India, the second largest producer of wheat after China, bought the bulk of the bumper harvest in 2009 at a state-set price of 1,080 rupees per 100 kg, or $220 per tonne, in the main producing states in north India.
Internal freight and other costs would raise the offer to about $260 a tonne free on board (FOB), traders say, well above the $180 a tonne FOB for similar quality milling wheat from the Black Sea region.
"Unless there is a subsidy, wheat sales from India do not make sense as the international market has come down," said Vijay Iyengar, managing director of leading physical trader Agrocorp International, which is based in Singapore.
Early in July, India ended a ban on wheat exports dating from 2007, by allowing shipment of 900,000 tonnes of wheat and 650,000 tonnes of wheat products.
Although paltry in global trade of 120 million tonnes, the step is crucial for Asian buyers seeking prompt shipment from within the region.
Faced with its biggest budget deficit in 16 years, India wants to cut subsidies but needs to reduce mounting grain stocks, and any move to ship out subsidised wheat will further depress global prices.
Wheat from Russia and Ukraine can reach Asian ports far more cheaply, and even if the landed cost was comparable, traders might be wary of Indian supplies, made erratic by sharp swings in crop output and trade policy.
Although the government has said it will not subsidise shipments, India was only able to sell 18 million to 19 million tonnes of wheat between 2001 and 2003 by subsidising grain to trim its burgeoning stocks of around 40 to 45 million tonnes.
BUMPER HARVESTS
The price is lower in states nearer the coast but output is low and a fall in international prices has jeopardised prospects for exports from even these regions.
"Indian wheat is priced at something like an $80-premium in this part of the world, including freight, to the likes of Black Sea," said John Reeve, director of agricultural commodities at Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore.
Indian wheat would have a freight advantage in Bangladesh over Southeast Asia and the Middle East, but Dhaka traders said the economics did not work and the country had no immediate need, as importers and millers had stocks of 300,000 to 400,000 tonnes.
"It is harvest time in the United States and people know that there is harvest pressure and prices will come down," said Shahid Jahangir, a wheat trader in Dhaka.
"We will start booking Black Sea wheat by the second half of July and by then traders here expect prices to fall to around the $200 to $220 level," he said, adding that the landed price of India wheat would be about $250 per tonne.
Chicago wheat has lost around 27 percent since the beginning of June as the U.S. harvest has gained momentum and on the forecast of a bumper crop in Australia, the world's fourth largest exporter.
OUT OF REACH
Other markets seem out of India's reach as well.
In Egypt, one of the world's biggest importers, the main government wheat buyers bought 55,000 tonnes of U.S. soft red winter wheat at $181.99 per tonne, and 120,000 tonnes of French wheat at $186.45 per tonne.
In India, wheat stocks with state-run procurement agency Food Corp. of India surged to around 33 million tonnes on July 1, nearly double the buffer stock norm of 17 million tonnes.
Indian traders and industry officials said they expected some exports of wheat products from the country but only minor shipments of the grain.
"We have some enquiries for wheat products from the Middle East. There are enquiries for about 1,000 tonnes of wheat flour," said M.K. Duttaraj, president of the Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India.
He said India's ban on exports, clamped on to ensure smooth domestic supplies and rein in inflation, made it difficult for traders to resume significant exports quickly.
"We last exported wheat products 3-4 years ago. Because of the ban on exports we have lost our overseas markets and will take time to revive," the official said.
Pramod Kumar, president of the Karnataka Flour Millers Association, said India may be able to export a small quantity of wheat to Bangladesh at some stage.
"Some small quantity can go to Bangladesh," he said. "(There is) Not much potential for substantial exports. It is not viable.
"If we talk about wheat products, yes there is scope but only for wholemeal flour, which can go to countries in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, where you have substantial Indian populations."
India is struggling to manage a huge surplus of wheat after government agencies raised purchases to more than 25 million tonnes in 2009, exceeding last year's record procurement of 22.7 million tonnes.
For the world's top ten importers and exporters of wheat, click on [ID:nSP490820]
For a table of India's wheat imports and exports since 2001/02, click on [ID:nDEL494644] (Additional reporting by Mayank Bhardwaj; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)