* Japan intervention boosts global liquidity, to aid cross/yen
* Potential for more Fed QE also to benefit higher yielders
* Japan QE experience shows ample liquidity hunts for yield
* Aussie, Brazilian real and Indonesia rupiah may benefit
By Hideyuki Sano
TOKYO, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Japan's intervention against yen strength for the first time in six years means even more liquidity for already flush global markets, paving the way for further gains in higher-yielding currencies against the yen.
Currencies such as the Australian dollar are poised to break out of this year's sideways struggle as the Bank of Japan's move to inject funds without sterilising their impact coincides with expectations for the Federal Reserve to boost its bond buying.
Resilient growth in emerging markets and higher interest rates in countries like South Africa and Brazil are proving alluring to yield-seeking Japanese investors and market players around the world seeking to boost returns via carry trades.
Even with the bouts of market volatility seen this year, carry trade strategies are proving a success because sharp market swings tend to be fleeting.
Cross/yen pairs -- such as Aussie/yen South African rand/yen and Brazilian real/yen -- may be able to hold gains and extend them even if dollar/yen stays stuck near 15-year lows despite Japan's intervention.
Indeed, the liquidity that Japan is pumping into the markets from what is expected to be unsterilised intervention may provide more fuel to those funds seeking higher yields.
When markets turned rocky in August after the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to maintain the size of its balance sheet, the dollar jumped as stocks and commodities fell, suggesting the dollar is being used to fund carry trades.
Both of these fit with the emerging pattern that the dollar could remain weak against the yen even as higher-yielding currencies resume their upward climb, as long as the economic slowdown worries do not spark a long slide in global equities.
"As soon as risk appetite comes back, excess liquidity will have to go into some markets," said Hiroshi Yokotani, portfolio manager at Tokio Marine Rogge Asset Management in London.
"When that happens, I'm sure investors will focus on interest rate differentials," Yokotani said.
The yen has a history of weakening against higher-yielding currencies while firming versus the greenback in such situations.
After the BOJ started quantitative easing in 2001 and the Fed slashed rates to then record lows, the yen weakened against most other major currencies and continued to lose value up until the financial crisis struck in 2007.
In the two years after the BOJ started QE, both the euro and the Australian dollar rose about 16 percent against the yen. The New Zealand dollar rose 29 percent. But the U.S. dollar lost 6 percent. For a graphic, click on: http://r.reuters.com/gef34p
Thus, where capital moves easily across borders, ample liquidity in one country can flow to high-yielding currencies and risky assets rather than stimulating lending in a moribund domestic economy.
QEII AND CARRY TRADE II?
With the Fed appearing to be on course to embark on its second quantitative easing to shore up growth and spur employment, the dollar's outlook could be even bleaker.
As dollar interest rates are expected to stay near zero "for an extended period" at minimum and the Fed could significantly increase the size of its $2.3 trillion balance sheet, the dollar may play a bigger role as the funding currency for carry trades.
The Aussie dollar is one of the best candidates to attract hungry investors. Australian interest rates are at 4.5 percent, by far the highest in the developed world.
Using the Reuters FX carry trade calculator, since the start of the year a mix of three-month funding using the dollar and yen to buy the Aussie and Indonesia rupiah would have returned 4.7 percent.
In general, a gap of three percentage points is needed for carry trades to be effective, traders say. The gap between U.S. and Japanese two-year swap rates and Aussie swap rates is about 4.5 percentage points, and with Indonesia it is 7 percentage points.
Australia is looking particularly strong thanks to robust demand for its abundant commodities, strong employment growth and a central bank confident in raising overnight rates further.
"The Australian economic cycle is different from the rest of the West. It is more linked to China or India. If you want to do dollar-carry trade, the easiest thing is to go long in the Aussie," said Masato Chin, president of Chin Associates, an investment advisory firm.
Chin expects the Aussie to reach parity against the dollar from current levels near $0.94 in the next year.
Funds from the developed world are also likely spilling over to emerging economies.
The Brazilian real with interest rates of 10.75 percent, has been particularly popular among investors in Japan.
This year individual Japanese investors have bought nothing but the Aussie and the real through toushin, or investment trusts, according to State Street.
They bought 2.4 trillion yen ($28 billion) of funds investing in the real and 1.2 trillion yen in the Aussie, roughly matching the overall investment in foreign currencies so far this year.
Asian currencies such as the rupiah and Indian rupee are also gaining popularity in Japan.
One condition for carry trades to thrive is low market volatility because big market swings can wipe out the returns from rate differentials. But despite Wall Street's "flash crash" in May and other turbulence this year, volatility is low.
One-month historical volatility in the Aussie/yen has fallen to about 23 percent after a spike near 50 percent in June. Before the global financial crisis, Aussie/yen volatility was just under 10 percent to about 20 percent. (Editing by Eric Burroughs)