* Scale of damage may quicken pace of overseas production
* Manufacturers have long complained of yen's strength
* Dearth of supplies, power outages add to concerns
* Shift of production overseas could speed up
By Nathan Layne and Tim Kelly
TOKYO, March 23 (Reuters) - Japan's triple disaster could well provide the final nudge for companies to shift production overseas and away from the risks that have sent a shudder through the global supply chain.
A surge in the yen to a record high against the dollar only adds to the case, reminding Japan's array of major export names such as Toyota Motor Co and Sony Corp about the currency risks of manufacturing in the country.
A shift in operations overseas would not be new. But the combination of earthquake, tsunami and the crisis it spawned at a nuclear power station could be a wake-up call for Japan Inc that speeds up the process, analysts say.
"The 'country risk' associated with producing in Japan has risen," said Takahide Kiuchi, chief Japan economist at Nomura Securities. "You've got the earthquake and the nuclear crisis. Add a stronger yen to the mix and there is a clear risk that the hollowing-out of the manufacturing base will accelerate."
That hollowing out has already seen overseas production by Japanese companies rise from 6 percent of the total to 20 percent in the last two decades.
History suggests the trend will now speed up in the wake of the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and a 10-metre tsunami that left at least 21,000 people dead or missing.
WHAT KOBE QUAKE SHOWS
In the three years after the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the ratio of overseas-to-domestic production of Japanese companies rose sharply -- to 11.6 from 8.3 -- a rise of more than a third. Soon after the Kobe earthquake the yen rose to a record high that was only surpassed last week in the wake of the latest earthquake.
The latest earthquake is a much bigger disaster. Japan's economy and manufacturers bounced back quickly after the Kobe quake, which produced an estimated $100 billion in damage. Industrial production fell for a month and then grew for three months. The economy continued to expand.
That produced expectations Japan could bounce back this time as well. But those hopes faded quickly as the scale of the crisis confronting Japan became apparent.
This time around, the cost of direct and indirect damage to the world's third-biggest economy could exceed $250 billion, or 2-3 percent of gross domestic output, Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano told Reuters in an interview.
Economists are also pencilling in a recession and a much slower recovery as the loss of power supply, both nuclear and thermal, means rolling power blackouts until Japan's infrastructure is repaired.
Such is Japan's position in the global supply chains that companies from Apple Inc , Nokia and General Motors Co to miner Rio Tinto have felt the impact.
In Japan, Sony said 16 plants out of a total of 25 have been impacted by the disaster. The maker of the Playstation gaming console said on Tuesday if shortages continued it will begin temporarily shifting output to overseas sites where parts were available.
Canon Inc has shut down its camera production at least until Thursday and rival Nikon said it expected to resume output at its north Japan plants by the end of March.
However, Nikon added that power cuts and parts shortages made a return to full production uncertain.
A TEST OFR TOYOTA
Japan produces a fifth of the world's computer chips and exported 7.2 trillion yen ($91 billion) worth of electronic parts last year, research from Mirae Asset Securities shows.
Toyota, the world's biggest carmaker, said all 12 of its Japanese assembly plants were shut down at least until March 26.
Among big carmakers, Toyota is most exposed to Japan. It makes 38 percent of its cars in Japan, against about a quarter for both Honda and Nissan .
It loses an outsized 30 billion yen in annual operating profit for each one yen gain. The currency has risen from more than 200 per dollar in 1985 to a record high last week of 76.25 per dollar. It now trades around 80 yen.
The temblor "underlines the fact that it's a competitive disadvantage to having too much of your production base in Japan," said Chris Richter, auto analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets.
Indeed, a post-disaster dearth of parts, labour and electricity, plus a rising yen, may test Toyota's resolve about maintaining such a production presence in Japan.
The head of Toyota, Akio Toyoda, promised in January to keep building 3 million cars a year in Japan, although he also complained about the strength of the yen.
"(The dollar) has been in the 80s for a very long time, and each company is doing its best to (withstand the pain). But if this keeps up, we (Japan) can't fight to remain a manufacturing base in the world," he told reporters at the time.
Convincing the likes of Toyota, Sony and others to keep production in Japan will be a difficult challenge for the debt-strapped government as it tries to work out how to finance Japan's reconstruction.
It has promised to cut corporate tax -- at 40 percent the highest among Group of Seven rich nations.
That could boost corporate profits but also reduce government income, so making it more difficult to cut a public debt that is double the size of the economy even before the potential cost of reconstruction is included.
A pick up in production shifting overseas could also have economic implications, although a fast ageing population means Japan has one of the lowest unemployment rates among rich nations.
To be sure, Japan has maintained a heatlhy trade surplus for decades suggesting that the yen is not a major problem for the economy. Any overseas profits repatriated to Japan would be subject to the level of the yen as well.
In addition, shifting production is not without its risks. China's currency the yuan, for example, has risen 23 percent against the dollar since it was revalued in 2005.
Some countries have less than a stellar record on issues such as legal enforcement of intellectual property or corporate law in general. Corruption and social stability are issues in many countries.
Still, the disaster has underlined the risks of being located in an earthquake-prone zone, which won't have gone unnoticed by the customers of Japanese exporters.
They may provide the pull on Japanese exporters to shift more production overseas or at least to diversify geographically within Japan. A failure to heed such calls could be costly, said Campbell Gunn, portfolio manager of T. Rowe Price's Japan fund.
"I don't think the stability and the quality arguments will go away and therefore Japan still has an advantage in both areas," he said. "But I think most people will now default to having two suppliers in two locations if they didn't before." (Editing by Michael Flaherty and Neil Fullick) (tim.kelly@thomsonreuters.com; +813-6441-1311; Reuters Messaging: +8190-9850-1378; tim.kelly@thomsonreuters.com)