* Atypical downturn forces analysts to study many indicators
* Traditional equity metrics P/E, dividend yields unreliable
* Investors look at leading indicators, freight costs
* Financial sector bond spreads, platinum-to-gold ratio eyed
By Sitaraman Shankar
LONDON, March 18 (Reuters) - Investors desperate to figure out if global stocks can extend a rebound from 12-year lows are looking at an unprecedented range of indicators to decipher mixed market signals and avoid being burnt again.
The unreliability of company earnings and traditional equity valuation metrics like dividend yields has analysts anxiously scouring data ranging from corporate bond spreads and freight costs to the ratio of platinum and gold prices.
"We are currently going through a very special crisis, where we have so many things happening that don't usually happen, at least with this intensity," said Tammo Greetfeld, strategist at UniCredit in Munich.
"There are new and different questions in this cycle compared to other cycles that make it necessary to look at a broader range of indicators," he said.
The downturn has featured credit and housing crises, bank solvency problems and a swift drop in economic activity.
Key parameters normally correlated with equities have behaved oddly: oil prices soared last year and then slumped as the focus of investor worry shifted from inflation to growth. Copper fell off a cliff last July but has recovered slightly on slim hopes of renewed Chinese demand.
"A lot of things that have worked in the past no longer seem to work," said Philippe Gijsels, Fortis strategist in Brussels.
He said spotting a recovery had become an inexact science relying on signals such as an end to big capital raisings by financial institutions -- at the centre of the downturn.
LOOKING AHEAD...AND AT CHINA
Amid the uncertainty, it's no surprise leading indicators have risen in importance, like business and consumer confidence polls from Germany's Ifo and similar French and Italian studies.
"In terms of top-down timing decisions on the equity market, upper and lower turning points in the Ifo expectation component have proved very helpful over the past 40 years -- however, they were not perfect," said Greetfeld.
Ifo is sending signs that are slightly positive: the latest survey suggested corporate sentiment deteriorated slightly in February, but its gauge of business expectations rose for a second straight month.
Purchasing managers' surveys -- usually encompassing new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and employment environment -- are also in focus.
And given the country's weight in the global economy in this downturn, Chinese figures are eyed more closely than most.
The Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) for February rose to 49 from 45.3 in January -- still below the no-change line of 50 that marks the difference between expansion and contraction, but well above a record low of 38.8 in November.
Figures released at the beginning of March produced an all too brief spike in global share prices.
Chinese demand could also be reflected in the Baltic Dry Freight index, which has been ticking up since early December after a collapse that began in mid-2008.
U.S. industrial production ratios are also key.
"The new orders-to-production ratio is improving, but overall the headline figure for production is too low. We are also looking for an improvement in inventory-to-sales ratios," said AXA Investment Managers strategist Franz Wenzel.
Strong new orders and low inventory could suggest improving demand for goods, key to an economic recovery.
FROM BONDS TO GOLD, AND PLATINUM
Even if investor focus has moved to the economy, the roots of the crisis lie squarely with the banking system.
While bank stocks have been battered, it is the sector's bonds and their spreads over government debt, that could provide early clues of an upturn.
"The best news is that non-financial high-grade corporate debt has been behaving a lot better, but financial sector debt needs to be better bid," said John Haynes, strategist at Rensburg Sheppard in London.
He said a directional change in the iBoxx financial index, a benchmark for bonds from financial companies, was crucial.
European financial bond prices have fallen almost 17 percent on average this year, the iBoxx financials index shows, suggesting investors are giving the sector a wide berth.
Haynes said he was also watching the platinum-to-gold ratio.
Platinum has a variety of industrial uses, notably in cars, while Gold is boosted by its safe-haven allure. The ratio of the two metals, in effect a ratio of economic growth expectations to investor fear, has moved decisively in the direction of fear. Platinum prices were double the level of gold in February last year, but now the ratio is close to one.
So far no one signal is strong enough to indicate an upturn to analysts looking at a composite picture.
"You look at everything and try and work as you used to, said Fortis' Gijsels. "But should have an open mind and understand that market internals have changed." (Editing by David Holmes)