* Parliament to appoint majority of rate-setters by March
* Analysts see new Council ending monetary tightening
* Lifting CPI goal could hurt credibility, hit markets
* Monetary stimulus can appear on cbank's agenda
By Sandor Peto
BUDAPEST, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Changes planned by Hungary's government to how central bank policymakers are appointed will likely lead to the end or reverse of its monetary tightening cycle and potentially a bond-buying programmme to boost growth.
After urging Governor Andras Simor to quit and criticising the bank for keeping rates too high, the centre-right government is poised to change the central bank law so it can appoint all four rate-setting spots coming vacant next year. Hungarian media have reported Prime Minister Viktor Orban may also push the new board to raise their medium-term inflation target to 3.5 percent, from 3 percent to justify lower interest rates and support his anti-austerity, pro-growth strategy.
Orban's government has not denied the report, which follows a series of decisions to raise budget revenues with crisis taxes on banks and other firms and the effective re-nationalisation of $14 billion in private pension assets.
The central bank has criticised those measures and, saying they were fuelling price growth and undermining Hungary's risk profile, raised interest rates last week to 5.5 percent.
It warned it could hike more, although that bias now looks set to last only until the new central bankers take their posts.
"The sentiment of the next Monetary Council will be more dovish, more willing to lower rates and there can be easing totaling 50 basis points next year," said Zoltan Torok of Raiffeisen. "But they will not start to cut rates wildly."
He said a rate cut of half a percent, from the current level of 5.5 percent, could potentially push the forint to weaken to, say, 300 per euro, from 278 on Wednesday, which would quickly end any easing cycle.
CREDIBILITY
Investors have called for more sustainable policy from Orban, who has rejected budget cuts in favour of tax cuts and other measures his government hopes will boost growth and push up budget revenues enough to keep its budget deficit below the EU ceiling of 3 percent of annual output.
On Monday, ratings agency Moody's downgraded Hungary to the brink of "junk" status and left its outlook on negative, saying it could cut further unless the government adopts a fiscal policy to keep the deficit low in the longer term.
The forint lost 1 percent on the Moody's move and economists said Orban's push for easier monetary policy could cause further losses as it would undermine the bank's credibility, erode Hungary's risk profile, and hamper Budapest's efforts to raise 4 billion euros worth of foreign bonds next year.
"A change in the inflation target is not a credible or sensible suggestion," said Nigel Rendell of RBC. "Any government ruling to change this would be seen as very negative for Hungary and would push up public sector borrowing costs."
The new Monetary Council could also adopt a government plan to introduce monetary stimulus to help economic growth and that also entails risks to markets as its details are unknown.
Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy said in September that the central bank could buy corporate bonds, primarily those of the state development bank MFB, to boost growth.
RATE BATTLE
The government will present the law to parliament once it gets an evaluation from the European Central Bank, expected as early as this week or next.
Analysts say legal sanctions against Hungary are unlikely if the government changes the law as planned, stripping Simor of his ability to name two of the central bank posts coming open and pushing the bank to pursue easier policy.
But it could trigger criticism from the European Central Bank and the European Union, which have already slammed Orban's special taxes on big companies and the government's plan to take over assets from private pension funds to plug budget holes.
"This will be a tough issue in the coming months," said Daniel Bebesy, analyst at Budapest Fund Management. "What has happened so far has been risky already... This can really hurt if the international market sentiment worsens."
The EU and ECB have also criticised a decision to cut the pay of Simor and his deputies and the government's calls for him to step down, which he has refused to do. The terms of Simor and his deputies Ferenc Karvalits and Julia Kiraly will end in 2013.
The law change "is of course very detrimental to the independence of the central bank... (and) might trigger a negative approach in certain (EU) countries", one EU diplomat in Budapest told Reuters. (Reporting by Sandor Peto)