ANALYSIS-Germany gains from export grip on emerging markets

Published 09/06/2010, 08:26 AM
Updated 09/06/2010, 08:28 AM

* Export-oriented economy gains from emerging market growth

* Wage restraint has enhanced German competitiveness

* Recovery broadening as consumer confidence grows

By Paul Carrel

BERLIN, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Germany's engineering excellence and grip on emerging markets have helped generated record growth and will help protect it from any slowdown in the U.S. economy and among its euro zone peers.

German companies have spent much of the last two decades establishing a firm foothold in emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, positioning themselves to supply the infrastructure these economies need to grow.

The strategy has been helped by corporate Germany's proficiency in making high-end engineering goods. Such is the demand for these products that machinery and commercial vehicles account for almost 50 percent of German exports.

"We're very well represented in many markets that are now very important but which were not so important previously -- better represented than others," said Volker Treier, chief economist at Germany's chambers of industry and commerce (DIHK).

This exposure to growth markets is translating into orders for German businesses even as mature economies -- led by the United States -- struggle to recover.

German manufacturing orders rose by 3.2 percent on the month in June, rounding out a strong second quarter that saw Europe's largest economy expand by 2.2 percent from the previous three months -- the fastest quarterly growth in a reunified Germany.

Businesses are already profiting. Of the 30 companies in the bluechip DAX index, 23 beat market expectations with their earnings in the quarter to end-June and 12 hiked their outlooks.

Investors have also taken note.

Audrey Kaplan, manager of a $790 million fund at U.S.-based Federated Investors, has increased the exposure of her portfolio to Germany this year and it is now overweight in German stocks.

"We've watched the German economy picking up due largely to emerging-market strength and demand for the German products that are highly technical products," she said.

Germany signed a cooperation agreement with Brazil late last year to help the country prepare to host the soccer World Cup in 2014 and the 2016 Olympics. Companies like industrial group Siemens are set to gain from infrastructure projects.

EXPORT EXPOSURE

Germany's strong export profile comes with a downside. In the depths of the global economic downturn last year, German exports slumped and the economy shrank by 4.7 percent -- more than the 4.1-percent contraction in the euro zone as a whole.

"It was the sensitivity to exports that brought the German economy down in 2008 and 2009 and is now returning it to remarkable growth," said Niels Thygesen, professor of economics at the University of Copenhagen.

During the downturn, foreign companies often found themselves unable to access the financing to buy German machinery, explained Treier at the DIHK.

"Often, the financial structure wasn't there. It didn't matter if you said a machine only costs 19,000 euros instead of 20,000," he said. "However, orders are coming back now."

Germany's strength in engineering is deeply embedded in the Mittelstand -- the small- and medium-sized companies that form the backbone of the economy.

Often family-owned, many of these companies have developed their expertise over decades, aided in part by trust-based relationships with state-backed regional banks that afforded them relatively favourable funding conditions.

The Mittelstand is looking at alternative sources of funding now that the regulatory environment for banks is tightening but their engineering expertise is well entrenched.

"For this technical development you need to take the long view, and not focus on short-term rates of return," said Treier.

HOUSEHOLDS PERK UP

The export-led recovery is filtering through to households.

German consumers, notoriously fond of saving, helped buoy the economy in the second quarter after weak private consumption hit gross domestic product (GDP) at the start of the year.

Construction has also played a role in Germany's robust recovery, bouncing back in the April-June period after a harsh winter impeded activity in the sector.

"We're starting to see some signs on the consumer side," said Kaplan at Federated Investors.

"We are tilted more towards exporters such as BASF and Siemens and also Daimler but we want to also participate in other parts of the German economy because we think the entire economy is going to be strong," she said.

Economists expect the economy to grow at least 3 percent in 2010 and trade unions want to share the spoils.

German unions have accepted meagre wage gains over much of the last decade in return for job security and their restraint has been another factor in enhancing Germany's competitiveness.

Now union IG Metall wants a 6 percent pay hike for 85,000 steelworkers -- a demand far above Germany's 1 percent inflation rate that could set the tone for other wage negotiations.

Higher wage deals could erode some of Germany's hard-won competitive advantage -- but not enough to hit the economy hard.

"It might undo one year of wage restraint in the past but not 10 years of wage restraint," said Thygesen in Copenhagen. (Additional reporting by Annika Breidthardt, editing by Mike Peacock)

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