ANALYSIS-German finmin's health prompts succession talk

Published 10/07/2010, 11:33 AM
Updated 10/07/2010, 11:36 AM

* Finance minister in hospital for a month, to miss G7/IMF

* Media attention turns to possible successors

* Schaeuble absence clouds outlook for euro zone policy

By Paul Carrel

BERLIN, Oct 7 (Reuters) - There is growing speculation in Germany that Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble may not return to office after his latest spell in hospital and whether he does may influence the shape of any future euro zone bailout.

Schaeuble, who has been wheelchair-bound since he was shot by a mentally ill man in 1990, was admitted to hospital last week for about a month to undergo treatment for bedsores.

His absence is causing disquiet in the ranks of the ruling coalition and comes at a sensitive time for the euro zone, with the euro near an 8-month high and Ireland's problems highlighting the fragility of the bloc's peripheral members.

Chancellor Angela Merkel dragged her heels earlier this year before finally agreeing to an unpopular rescue package for Greece and analysts say that Schaeuble's passionate support of the euro zone project at the time was a factor.

The younger generation in Germany -- several of whom are being sized up to replace the minister -- are generally seen as being less pro-European and more interested in Germany's narrower interests than the Kohl-era from which Schaeuble hails.

If that proved to have implications for the administration's approach to future bailouts, it could be costly for those euro zone countries now struggling most with debt and an aggressive bond market.

"The questions about (Schaeuble's) physical health add to the question marks about the political willingness to back any more bailouts for some of these errant countries," said a senior official at one euro zone think tank, asking not to be named.

No country has yet tapped the euro zone's safety net -- the Europoean Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) -- and any new German finance minister would continue to have a substantial influence on how the bloc's troubled members are treated.

RUDDERLESS

Schaeuble, 68, has already worked from hospital for lengthy periods this year but his latest 'time out' means he will miss a series of high-profile meetings abroad at a time when there is talk of an "international currency war". [ID:nLDE69308R]

It is not the first time he has missed such gatherings, but there are concerns that repeated absences -- this time at least four weeks -- leave Germany sidelined and rudderless on the financial stage.

Schaeuble's ministry denied on Wednesday that he offered to resign before going into hospital and Merkel has dismissed as "inappropriate" concerns expressed by some in her coalition over his renewed, and extended absence.

Merkel has no interest in replacing Schaeuble, who brings gravitas and experience to her team, people close to her say.

"Schaeuble has, through his office, a stabilising effect in the cabinet," said one member of the government.

A hardy character who has remained at the forefront of German politics for the 20 years since he was shot and nearly killed, Schaeuble will not go easily. But the question is whether he will be fit enough to stay.

Media speculation over the minister's future is at fever pitch, with the respected Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily running a headline reading "Schaeuble considers resignation" on its front page on Thursday.

YOUNG GUNS

A passionate European, Schaeuble has struck up a good working relationship with French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde, in contrast to often fractious ties between their countries' leaders. BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research economist Guillaume Menuet wondered whether a new German finance minister would have the same rapport.

"It's all very much up in the air, on both sides of the Rhine," Menuet said, pointing to a French cabinet reshuffle that may see Lagarde moved to another role, even if that is unlikely.

"You need stability, you need clarity and I suppose things are conspiring against the good relationship being extended, so I think it's a marginal negative for investors," he added of the question marks over Schaeuble's future.

"You never know what's going to replace what you had."

Schaeuble is working from hospital but will be represented at a meeting of the Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers later this week by his deputy, Joerg Asmussen -- a civil servant who is a member of the opposition Social Democrats (SPD).

He will also miss a meeting of the G20 economic powers later in October. Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle will go instead.

"It was already unfortunate last spring when the finance minister was absent at a decisive moment during the euro crisis," Frank Schaeffler, a finance expert with the Free Democrats junior coalition party, told Spiegel magazine.

"Were a crisis now to break out suddenly in Ireland, again Germany would not be well positioned," Schaeffler added.

Media have pointed to a number of potential replacements including Roland Koch, a former conservative premier in the state of Hesse, and Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere -- a close ally of Merkel's.

Koch, 52, has denied he could be a candidate for the job. De Maiziere, 56, stood in for Schaeuble at an EU finance meeting in May. Both men are members of Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and would stick to Schaeuble's budget consolidation course.

Grass roots disillusionment with mainstream politics has cost Merkel support on both the right and the left. Koch, who has led conservative efforts on subsidy and corporate tax reform in past years, could help address this problem.

"If Schaueble has to go for health reasons, Merkel could get two for the price of one with Koch: an excellent finance minister plus a man to the right of her who can keep disgruntled conservatives in the CDU fold," said Josef Joffe, publisher and editor of respected German weekly Die Zeit. (Additional reporting by Andreas Rinke; editing by Patrick Graham)

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