🐂 Not all bull runs are created equal. November’s AI picks include 5 stocks up +20% eachUnlock Stocks

ANALYSIS-Dollar to eventually lose grip on commodity trade

Published 09/14/2009, 08:00 AM
Updated 09/14/2009, 08:03 AM
ABDN
-
GC
-
HG
-

* Acceptance and free float currency needed for commodities

* IMF's SDR only a notional currency, no liquidity

* Yuan likely contender, but not for many years

By Pratima Desai and Veronica Brown

LONDON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - It won't happen next week, next month, or even five years from now, but a day will come when commodities are traded in a currency other than the dollar.

The debate about commodities and their denomination has been fuelled by China, which holds vast amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds and dollars. China in March floated the idea of the dollar being replaced as the world's major reserve currency. [ID:nLJ936330

Leaders of the world's top 20 economies meet in Pittsburgh later this month to discuss the global economy. Many think the subject of dollar losses -- down more than 60 percent against the euro since January 2002 -- is likely to come up again.

Inevitably thoughts will turn to commodity prices.

"Yes, commodities could be denominated in other currencies. This is already beginning," said Mark Mobius, who heads Templeton Asset Management's Emerging Markets Group.

"Brazil and China recently reached an accord to utilise their own currencies on some trades. This has some rationale since China has become Brazil's largest trading partner surpassing the U.S."

A freely floating alternative currency is a prerequisite, as is acceptance -- it took two world wars and the abandonment of the gold standard for the dollar to take over from sterling.

"It took decades ... for sterling to lose its reserve status -- long after the echoes of empire faded," said Frances Hudson, global thematic strategist at Standard Life Investments.

100 YEARS

China has since backed away from the idea.

But the spectre has been raised high enough to make people think about alternatives -- the euro, the yuan or a basket such as the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) -- for commodities denomination. "SDR is ... only a notional currency that exists primarily between central banks. It has no commercial role," said Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING.

Analysts more often than not cite the euro as an alternative currency for commodities because it is liquid.

But the euro is still in the early stages of its life cycle, it is still evolving and monetary policy, which assumes one-size fits all, in the region could spell the end of integration.

Acceptance is still an issue.

"When the United States introduced dollars as a common currency for the union, it took more than 100 years for all states to accept it as a real currency," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer at London & Capital.

"Until we have another reasonably large, stable long-lasting currency, commodities will continue to be priced in dollars."

CHEAPER COMMODITIES

A freely tradeable yuan at the moment looks like a forlorn hope because China still depends on exports -- a large proportion of which go to the United States -- for growth.

It cannot afford to liberalise the yuan as its massive trade surplus could mean a stronger currency, which in turn could jeopardise exports, growth and political stability.

However fund managers favour the yuan for commodities pricing because China is a major consumer. Chinese demand growth for commodities is also among the highest in the world.

"The yuan will be a major global currency in time as China becomes a superpower," said David Murrin, chief investment officer at Emergent Asset Management.

Until then the status quo is likely to remain. That will be the case even if China has another go at the dollar, which when it falls makes commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.

"If China can talk the dollar down periodically, its commodities purchases for stockpiles will be that much cheaper," said a Europe-based fund manager.

China is said to have bought vast amounts of copper for its stockpiles -- evidenced by stocks of copper in London Metal Exchange warehouses, which halved to about 256,000 tonnes in the middle of July from early April.

"We can't get rid of the dollar, but we can hedge dollar weakness with commodity holdings," said Lena Komileva, head of G7 market economics at Tullett Prebon.

For a column on the dollar and commodity price moves click on

(Editing by Peter Blackburn)

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.