* Stocks seen rising 15-20 pct in 2010 on recovery, copper
* A Pinera presidency would provide a near-term boost
* Peso could appreciate to as high as 465 per dollar
By Aaron Nelsen and Maria Jose Latorre
SANTIAGO, Jan 15 (Reuters) - The rally in Chile's bourse is seen forging ahead in 2010 as the economy recovers and copper prices rebound, and would get an extra boost if the conservative market pick wins the presidency on Sunday.
Chile's peso is also expected to continue its rapid appreciation as costly commodities bring more U.S. dollars in revenues into the world's No.1 copper producer.
The leading index IPSA <.IPSA> ended 2009 at an all-time high, gaining 51 percent in its biggest annual rise in 16 years as Chile emerges from its first recession in a decade. However it lagged the 83 percent gain on Brazil's Bovespa <.BVSP>.
An upswing in commodity prices like oil and copper and stimulus measures are helping many emerging countries recover from the crisis and has provided a boost to their bourses. [ID:nN15193308]
Chilean stocks have since continued to rally, and are up 5.6 percent so far this year alone, though any renewed bout of global crisis hitting demand in major copper consumer China, and any consequent fall in copper prices, would undermine gains.
Investors see retail and commodity shares leading the bourse this year.
"We're optimistic about 2010," said Ronald Espinosa, head of investments at the Inversiones Security brokerage. We're not expecting to see a repeat of 2009, but we think it's going to be a good year for the bourse, with an expected return of around 20 percent."
A presidential win by the market favorite, billionaire Sebastian Pinera, in a Sunday run-off election that is expected to be very tight would add to momentum in the near-term. [ID:nN14113271]
"The bourse will probably react in the very short term if Pinera wins," said Claudio Gonzalez, head of research and strategy at the Tanner brokerage in Santiago. "But it would be short-lived."
Pinera is seen winning Sunday's vote by a razor-thin margin against former president Eduardo Frei, who is running for the center-left coalition that has ruled Chile since the end of Gen. Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship in 1990.
A MORI poll published this week showed Pinera with a 1.8 percentage point lead over Frei, within the margin of error.
Pinera is banking on the private sector to invest heavily, create jobs and so boost economic growth, while Frei wants a stronger state role in the economy. [ID:nN11163285]
Pinera's critics say his plan relies too much on the strength of the global recovery.
However few expect any major changes to policies that have cemented Chile's position as one of the region's most stable economies, whomever wins. [ID:nN14192252] [ID:nN14131531]
Key mining and retail projects are being revived as the crisis abates and Chile's $170 billion economy is expected to bounce back from recession in 2009 to show growth of up to 5.5 percent this year, the central bank estimates.
TOO FAST, TOO SOON?
Still, some analysts warn the IPSA's rapid surge so early in the year could limit gains for the rest of 2010. The market has risen more than 18 percent since Nov. 26 alone, and the price to earnings (PE) ratio of the IPSA stands at around 19.
Commodity and retail shares are leading the rally, with
industrial conglomerate Copec
"For the first half of 2010 the outlook is good because Chile looks to benefit from the outlook for commodities," said Salvador Arenas, head of research for LarrainVial. "The road could get more difficult in the second half of the year because stocks will have incorporated a good part of gains for 2010."
Forestry giants Copec and CMPC
Chile's peso
The central bank had warned in recent months it could intervene to disrupt a sharp appreciation of the peso. However, in an apparent shift bank President Jose De Gregorio last week warned any attempt to fix the currency was "extremely dangerous", which could leave room for further appreciation.
The currency has climbed 3.7 percent so far in January to around 489 per dollar and analysts say it will likely appreciate to between 490 to 465 per dollar in 2010.
"Copper, our main export, remains at near record highs and that gives you an enormous surplus of dollars," said Patricio Roncagliolo, head of finance for FXCM Chile, who sees resistance at around 465 pesos. (Editing by Alonso Soto and Simon Gardner; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)