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ANALYSIS-Belarus FX woes spark credit crunch, panic buying

Published 04/18/2011, 10:08 AM
Updated 04/18/2011, 10:12 AM
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* Rouble devaluation widely expected

* Banks use tricks to trade out of the official trading band

* Uncertainty stalls investment, causes panic buying of food

By Olzhas Auyezov

MINSK, April 18 (Reuters) - Belarus looks to be on the verge of another devaluation of its currency as it struggles with a credit crunch and panic buying of key commodities -- both unintended consequences of attempts to minimise the last one.

Only three weeks after a 10 percent de facto devaluation, prompted by a haemorrhaging of the impoverished country's foreign currency reserves, official efforts to limit its impact have backfired, further undermining trust in the authorities.

President Alexander Lukashenko hinted on Saturday that a devaluation could take place within a few days but it remains to be seen whether it will bring the rouble's exchange rate to a fair level and allow normal trading to resume.

Between the beginning of the year and the devaluation late last month, the former Soviet republic's foreign currency reserves fell by a quarter to $3.7 billion due to its vain efforts to defend the rouble in the face of a mounting current account deficit.

On March 29, the central bank allowed the rouble to devalue by 10 percent but only on an over-the-counter market. It said currencies should continue to trade at the official rate on the currency exchange and in retail exchange points.

The central bank said priority would be given to foreign currency buy orders from those repaying debt and buying key goods such as medicines.

In reality, however, bankers say traders have flooded the central bank with orders "backed" by fake loans, making it all but impossible to buy dollars, euros or Russian roubles on the currency exchange.

Similarly, retail exchange points quickly ran out of reserves and Belarussians seeking to repay foreign currency loans or preparing for a trip abroad spent hours in queues waiting for someone to sell them a handful of dollars.

The 10 percent devaluation also proved to be not enough to revive the over-the-counter interbank market.

"The (interbank) market is dead," said a local banker.

For those willing to pay 20-30 percent over the official rate, banks have devised schemes to circumvent the restrictions such as repeated buying and selling with maximum spread.

Others sell their counterparts, for example, euros at the official rate and then perform a euro-dollar trade with them at a rate that is 30 percent off the market. Since roubles are not involved, such transactions are not regulated.

CONSUMERS PANIC

At the same time, banks are losing customer deposits -- which some people reinvest in gold or durable goods -- and have nearly halted lending which has led to a credit crunch.

Mikhail, a taxi driver, said his main job was in construction but his company, a private business, has not been able to pay its staff for three months because of a failure to secure fresh bank loans.

The dearth of foreign currency and uncertainty about the exchange rate have hurt trade and investments.

"I was going to launch a new plant but I am not sure about that now," said a Minsk-based businessman who spoke on condition of anonymity. "It will require some imported raw materials and I may simply have no currency to buy them."

However, officials overseeing state companies that generate foreign currency revenues have found a new source of power and profits.

"They are enjoying the situation and telling Lukashenko the system is working fine," said the businessman.

On Saturday, Lukashenko promised to put an end to exchange rate chaos within "a few days". He had earlier said economic woes were part of the same "chain" as a deadly April 11 metro blast and blamed them on forces seeking to destabilise Belarus.

Faced with rising prices for both imported and domestically produced goods -- as the government has dropped a number of pricing regulations -- ordinary Belarussians this month have increased panic buying of sugar and sunflower oil.

Sales of sugar in Minsk reached 300 tonnes, five times the daily average, on April 12, according to the state news agency BelTA which said the city government would fine managers of shops that run out of sugar. (Additional reporting by Andrei Makhovsky; Writing by Olzhas Auyezov; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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