* Sees 300 million zloty gain from inventory valuation
* Sees 700 million zloty negative effect from macro factors
* May sell Mazeikiu if conditions do not improve
* Shares up 1.2 percent
(Adds quote, analyst, details, updates share price)
WARSAW, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Poland's leading refiner PKN Orlen said it will yet again show profits driven by inventory revaluations in the third quarter amid poor operating conditions, and is closer to exiting its underperforming Lithuanian unit.
The state-controlled company expects to post a third-quarter operating profit thanks to a 300 million zloty ($107 million) gain from inventory valuation.
PKN's trading statement on Friday also showed the company's bottom line would take a 700 million zloty hit from factors such as weaker margins and Ural/Brent differential -- the difference between prices of Russian and Brent oil used as benchmark for sales.
"We have managed to offset very poor operating conditions with much higher refining volumes, which rose 12 percent quarter-on-quarter," PKN's Chief Executive Jacek Krawiec told TVN CNBC news channel.
PKN's group, including Lithuanian refiner Mazeikiu and Czech refiner Unipetrol, refined 7.3 million tonnes of oil in the third quarter. It said refining margins fell to $3.1 per barrel in the third quarter from $7.1 a year ago, while the differential plunged to $0.5 from $2.6.
Shares in PKN rose 1.2 percent by 0944 GMT, in line with the wider market.
"This is all positive news. I would estimate the operating profit at about 350-400 million zlotys with net profit at 650-700 million," Kamil Kliszcz, an analyst at DI BRE brokerage, said.
A year ago, PKN, which is due to release its third-quarter results on Nov. 13, showed a third-quarter operating profit of 512 million zlotys and a net profit of 21 million.
MAZEIKIU EXIT
Krawiec reiterated that PKN, which fully controls Lithuanian Mazeikiu, is consistently unhappy about profitability at its unit, as margins are being eroded by high logistics costs after a Russian pipeline stopped pumping oil to the refinery in 2006.
Since then the Lithuanian refinery gets oil through the Klaipedos terminal and from there by trains, significantly denting profitability.
"We are not talking to the Russians, but soon we will have to ask them what are the conditions to reinstate supplies through the pipeline," Krawiec said.
The company earlier talked to the Lithuanian government about buying the Klaipedos oil terminal and building a pipeline to Mazeikiu, but the offer was rejected by the Lithuanians.
This prompted speculations in the Lithuanian press that PKN will exit Mazeikiu.
"To sell Mazeikiu would be a last resort, but at the moment we are not ruling out any solution," Krawiec told TVN CNBC Biznes news channel. (Reporting by Chris Borowski and Patryk Wasilewski; Editing by Dan Lalor and Rupert Winchester) ($1 = 2.796 zlotys)