(Updates with quotes, details)
By Holger Hansen
BERLIN, June 30 (Reuters) - German unemployment rose less than expected in June, spurring hopes that the resilience of Europe's biggest labour market could help the country to emerge faster from its worst post-war recession.
Aided by major use of shortened working hours and statistical changes, unemployment rose 31,000 on the month, adjusted for seasonal swings, Federal Labour Office data showed on Tuesday.
The eighth consecutive monthly jobless rise was lower than the consensus forecast of 45,000 in a Reuters poll of economists. The jobless rise has been below forecast for four of the past five months.
Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING Financial Markets, said that a number of leading indicators suggested the recession was easing, and the labour market was one of "the bright spots of the recovery".
"So far the safety net of (short-time) work is holding and with federal elections in September, the government will keep a close eye on the labour market," he said.
However, job losses were likely to accelerate in the next few months as the downturn hit home, economists said.
For now, the fact that unemployment was lower than expected was to be welcomed, said Alexander Koch at UniCredit.
"Every person who is not laid off is obviously going to benefit private consumption and the social security systems. If firms are able to keep staff now and the economy starts to recover it's going to help them," he said.
The headline unadjusted jobless total fell 48,000 to 3.41 million, giving a rate of 8.1 percent, the Office said.
Recent statistical changes have helped to keep the unemployment total lower. Without the changes, the adjusted rise in June would have been roughly 50,000, it added.
BANKS CRITICAL
Other measures, such as a government subsidy for scrapping old cars, have also had an impact on the job market.
Carmaker Volkswagen said last week the measure had saved 5,800 jobs worldwide at the Wolfsburg-based firm.
Measures of investor and corporate sentiment have rallied in recent months, raising hopes that the economy could even see some growth again soon. The government expects the German economy to contract a record 6 percent in 2009.
Economists stressed that the latest job figures understated the effect of the recession on the economy.
"Statistical changes and shortened hours are dampening the impact," said Koch. "Firms will have to make further adjustments and unemployment will rise well beyond 4 million."
Without the extensive use of shorter working hours and changes to how the jobless figure is calculated, the headline jobless total would already be around 4 million, he said.
Global Insight economist Timo Klein said that ensuring banks were able to lend freely was vital to supporting the job market.
"The 'toxic asset' problems of the banking sector is still not sufficiently dealt with, leading to a worsening of credit conditions for non-financial companies," he said.
"This is the critical factor for a likely (rise) in layoffs during the second half of 2009, as many firms may no longer be able to sustain existing short-time work arrangements."
(Additional reporting by Dave Graham and Joerg Voelkerling)