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UPDATE 2-Lufthansa profit target at risk, shares drop

Published 10/28/2009, 12:49 PM
Updated 10/28/2009, 12:51 PM
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* Lufthansa says low demand, high oil prices weigh

* 9-mth oper profit 226 mln eur, above poll avg of 74 mln

* Shares down 5.5 pct

(Adds comments by Ryanair CEO, background)

By Maria Sheahan

FRANKFURT, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Deutsche Lufthansa AG sounded a warning it could miss its target of making an operating profit in 2009, blaming stubbornly low demand and a fresh rise in oil prices.

Lufthansa said its nine-month operating profit dropped to 226 million euros ($335.3 million) from 954 million in the year-earlier period. That figure was still above the 74 million euro average analyst estimate in a Reuters poll.

But the German airline said extra costs from absorbing recent acquisitions could weigh on its operating margins in the months to come. It gave no other detail.

Lufthansa shares slid 5.5 percent by 1640 GMT as the downbeat outlook on Wednesday overshadowed the better-than-expected nine-month earnings.

Industry body IATA said last month that the aviation sector was still far from returning to profit, though demand had started recovering from a steep slump. It has said it sees the world's airlines losing $11 billion this year.

Carriers have been offering fewer flights, grounding airplanes and cancelling aircraft orders to cope with lower demand. Plane makers Boeing and rival Airbus are headed for their worst annual order tally in at least 15 years.

In Hamburg, Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O'Leary told journalists he expected the carrier's passenger volume in October to rise in line with September's 17-percent gain.

He said the low-cost airline could cancel its options on new Boeing planes if its stumbling talks with the U.S. aircraft maker failed and turn to Airbus.

Adding to the industry's woes, a drop in global trade has pummelled air cargo companies as demand dropped 18 percent in the first eight months of 2009, according to IATA. Lufthansa Cargo generated about 12 percent of the group's revenues last year.

GROWING FAMILY

The German carrier has recently added to its family, which already contained Swiss and Germanwings, by acquiring Brussels Airlines, Austrian Airlines and British carrier bmi.

Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note that Lufthansa was better positioned than its peers to weather the crisis but warned that digestion of the acquisitions is taking a toll. Lufthansa recently lost its investment grade credit rating.

"We would view the sale of some of Lufthansa's stake investments or non-core assets as a positive catalyst," they said.

Lufthansa's nine-month revenues fell by 13.2 percent to 16.2 billion euros, just short of the average 16.29 billion euro estimate in a Reuters poll of analysts.

Full results are due on Thursday.

Lufthansa has been battling rivals Air France-KLM and British Airways for pole position in the European aviation sector and last year agreed to a raft of acquisitions to grab market share in the region.

British Airways is scheduled to publish its quarterly results on Nov. 6, and Air France on Nov. 18. (Additional reporting by Jan Schwartz in Hamburg; Editing by David Cowell) ($1=.6740 Euro)

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