UPDATE 1-Euro zone economy shows split on path to recovery

Published 08/05/2009, 04:34 AM
Updated 08/05/2009, 04:36 AM

(Updates with economist view, market reaction)

By Nigel Davies

LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - The deep recession in the euro zone services economy eased in July, but there was a significant divergence among euro zone countries and employment conditions worsened, a survey showed on Wednesday. The data confirm that the euro zone is edging back towards economic growth as a slowdown in new business taken on by firms continues to abate. Yet any recovery could be slow as the number of unemployed soars and consumers remain reluctant to spend.

Markit's Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers Index of around 2,000 companies ranging from cafes to banks rose to 45.7 in July from 44.7 in June, its highest level since last October, but still below the 50.0 mark dividing growth from contraction.

That was slightly up on the flash estimate of 45.6, helped by a marginal revision upwards in new business.

Earlier data showed Germany's services sector leapt close to recovery levels in July, while improvement was seen in Italy. France, the euro zone's second largest economy, went against the trend and saw its services recession deepen, as did Spain, by far the weakest of the top four euro zone countries.

The euro and financial markets did not react to the data.

"The pace of the improvement in these indices has been quite remarkable so it does point to the recession ending before the end of this year," said Giada Giani at Citi.

She said the level of the index still suggested a minor contraction in economic activity and forecast a negative reading for GDP in the second quarter, and possibly the third quarter too.

The data add to growing evidence that the euro zone economy is creeping out of recession, but will require a delicate touch by the European Central Bank, which is widely expected to leave rates at a record low of 1.0 percent for some time.

An easing in the decline in the services sector, combined with improving data for the manufacturing sector, took the Composite index of the two to 47.0 from July from 44.6 in June, its highest level since last August. That was also just up on the 46.8 flash reading.

But July marked the first month in 13 when the manufacturing index was higher than that covering the euro zone economy's dominant services sector.

The Composite index was boosted by a leap in the new orders index to 46.2 from 43.8, its highest level since last August.

UNEMPLOYMENT DAMPENS HOPE

But the forward-looking news contrasted with the PMI's employment index, which slipped to 44.3 in July in the services sector from 44.5 in June. That was revised down sharply from the 44.9 flash estimate.

Official unemployment in the euro zone rose to a 10-year high in June of 9.4 percent, and is widely expected to break through the 10.0 percent mark before long and rise through 2010. The tough conditions were underlined by Germany's Metro, the world's fourth largest retailer, on Monday when it reported falling earnings in the second quarter, and said retail sales would fall further in coming months mainly due to rising unemployment.

The survey also showed that price pressures remain very low throughout the euro zone as businesses battle to keep going by slashing costs to boost demand.

The input prices index fell to its lowest level in the survey's 11-year history in July, while the prices charged for services remained at weak levels.

That chimed with official data in the euro zone, which showed inflation fell 0.6 percent in the 16-nation bloc last month, the second month of negative inflation since the creation of the currency area in 1999.

Detailed PMI data are only available under licence from Markit and customers need to apply to Markit for a licence.

To subscribe to the full data, click on the link below: http://www.markit.com/information/register/reuters-pmi-subscriptions

For further information, please phone Markit on +44 20 7260 2454 or email economics@markit.com (Editing by Richard Balmforth)

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