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UPDATE 1-ECB's Nowotny: ECB will phase out, drain liquidity

Published 11/25/2009, 01:16 PM
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* Nowotny says ECB to phase out extra liquidity steps

* Sramko sees growth in 2009, 2010 better than expected

* Source: indexation an option for 12-month refi rate

(Combines stories, adds source comment)

By Boris Groendahl

VIENNA, Nov 25 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will phase out liquidity measures to avoid inflationary risks, Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said on Wednesday, as policymakers mull how to wean banks off cheap central bank cash.

A euro zone monetary source told Reuters no decision had been taken on how to unwind the ECB's crisis measures but three options were under consideration for the borrowing cost of what is likely to be the last offer of 12-month funds, on Dec. 16. The source said the rate could be left at the main policy rate of 1 percent, a margin could be added or the ECB could index the rate to a market indicator.

This could be the Euribor benchmark for one-year interbank loans, currently at 1.235 percent, or a sovereign bond yield, the source said. The yield on 12-month German government bills is 0.804 percent.

There is a precedent for indexation: Sweden's Riksbank sets the minimum interest rate on 12-month loans at the average repo rate during the maturity of the loan plus 0.30 percentage points.

Slovakia's Ivan Sramko said the future of the 12-month operations would be decided on Dec. 3 -- echoing other policymakers who have stressed that discussions are continuing.

Asked on Monday about the terms of the 12-month loan, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said: "We will decide on whether or not we will have indexed rates or fixed rates like we did before, or any kind of particular decision on that side. I exclude nothing, but I have nothing to add."

Nowotny told Austrian parliamentarians improved conditions on financial markets meant not all liquidity measures were needed to the same extent as they were in the past, according to a summary of his remarks to the parliamentary finance committee.

"Monetary policy will make sure that the extraordinary measures will be phased out and the liquidity that was provided will be drained to avoid any risk for price stability in the medium and long term," he said, according to a summary, provided by the Austrian parliament.

DISCUSSING DETAILS

Nowotny also told the committee rising unemployment could slow down the nascent recovery in the euro zone and that it was too early to say the recovery was already self-sustained.

New ECB staff forecasts are also due on Dec. 3 and Slovakia's Sramko said the euro zone economy would perform better than previously forecast in both 2009 and 2010.

"My personal view is that the revision will be for a smaller decline this year (compared with Sept. expectations), while growth will by slightly better then expected next year," the Slovak central bank governor told reporters after attending a government meeting in the northern Slovak town of Poprad.

"I see no major changes to inflation forecasts."

In September, the ECB forecast a 4.4 to 3.8 percent contraction in the euro zone this year and growth of -0.5 to +0.9 percent next year.

A better economic outlook raises the chance of banks managing without such cheap and abundant ECB funding.

Cyprus central bank governor Athanasios Orphanides said last week the ECB might change the terms of some liquidity operations, and reduce the frequency of others.

Currently, the ECB is conducting an average of two three-month operations, one six-month operation and one one-month operation a month, ot counting three 12-month operations, compared with its pre-crisis calendar of one three-month operation a month.

These extra operations, like the promise of unlimited liquidity at fixed rates, are to run for as long as needed or at least "beyond the end of 2009". (Additional reporting by Martin Santa in Poprad, Slovakia, writing by Krista Hughes; Editing by Matthew Jones) ((boris.groendahl@reuters.com; +43 1 53112-258; Reuters Messaging: boris.groendahl.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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