Spain shows recovery signs, economists cautious

Published 08/05/2009, 05:43 AM
Updated 08/05/2009, 05:45 AM
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* Economists warn recent data doesn't mean recovery

* June industrial production better-than-expected

By Paul Day

MADRID, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Spain's economy showed signs of recovery in the key manufacturing and services sectors on Wednesday, but economists warned that a brief summer turnaround was not proof of a fully-fledged rebound.

A slew of data for June and July this week have helped support the government's claim that the worst of the recession is over.

Industrial output contracted a less-than-expected 16.2 percent in June year-on-year, its slowest pace of decline in eight months, official data showed on Wednesday, reflecting similar encouraging signs from manufacturing data and jobless.

The calendar-adjusted fall in activity at factories and mines compares to a drop of 20.5 percent in May and forecasts for -18.3 percent. See [ID:nL5495509]

The manufacturing Purchasing Manager's index declined at its slowest pace in 18 months, Markit said on Monday, while the labour market saw lay offs decrease for the third month running in July, the government said on Tuesday. See [ID:nLAG003622] and [ID:nL4396186]

But many economists were quick to dampen euphoria.

"Spain continues to underperform and while it's true the pace of contraction is easing, we can't get too excited about the Spain recovery story," said economist at Deutsche Bank Mark Wall.

Not all data has been positive, with an unexpected downturn in July's services PMI, compared to an upturn in Germany and Italy, suggesting Spain's path to economic recovery would be a long and difficult one. See [ID:nLAG003644]

STATE STIMULUS

Most of the so-called "green shoots" in the Spanish economy in the last couple of months have been nurtured by a massive state stimulus plan which has spent some 15 billion euros ($21.59 billion) in the first six months of the year.

"Government support is in part behind (industrial production figures), particularly with regard to the labour market, but industrial activity is also a reflection of this," said economist at Citi Giada Giani.

The total stimulus plan, one of the largest in the world in relative terms, will amount to over 4 percent of gross domestic product from 2008 to 2010 and ranges from blanket tax breaks, targeted at cash-strapped consumers, to public work programmes.

The domestic nature of Spain's economic downturn means the it may need to pass wide-reaching structural reforms before it can rise from the slump.

Fuelled by home-spun structural weakness, such as dependence on a housing boom and credit-heavy domestic consumption, unlike many of its European peers Spain cannot simply hope for a global rebound to lift it out of the doldrums.

"The (industrial production figure) is reasonably encouraging ... but the signs are still there that Spain is in a lot of trouble," said economist at Capital Economics Ben May.

"Data is still weak. We still expect the economy to contract and don't expect to see positive growth until late 2010. This mainly reflects the huge economic imbalances in Spain which need to be addressed," he added.

(Reporting by Paul Day; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

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