By Alister Bull
PITTSBURGH, Sept 27 (Reuters) - G20 leaders promised last week to rebalance world growth, and upcoming data will show that it is already happening, although not for the reasons they want.
While the world's economic leaders would prefer the rebalancing come as a result of strengthening economies around the globe, it's primarily due to the weakness of the U.S. rebound.
A monthly U.S. employment report due on Friday, even if it shows conditions slowly improving, is expected to underscore the feeble state of the country's labor market. That will keep U.S. household spending soft and the savings rate high.
Leading indicators will provide additional evidence of a gradual improvement in the outlook for manufacturing, with purchasing managers' reports due on Thursday.
Group of 20 leaders committed themselves during their summit here to shrink imbalances between debtors like the United States and export-led economies like China.
Their communique on Friday laid out a framework for achieving this goal, backed up by enforcement through peer review and International Monetary Fund scrutiny.
The U.S. current account has already retreated from pre-financial crisis highs as the country imports less and saves more. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Thursday that higher savings were healthy and desirable.
"Rebalancing is happening," said Michael Feroli, an economist at JP Morgan Chase in New York.
But economists said the only thing that really matters is the lasting behavior of the United States as the world's largest economy, and how everyone else adapts.
"I think the key to the outcome is whether the other countries believe the United States is serious about not going back to being consumer of last resort and running big trade deficits," said Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.
"If the other countries believe that, they have to draw the conclusion they cannot rely on export-led growth," he said.
That could have significant consequences for currency markets, although Geithner reiterated Washington's long-standing mantra that a strong dollar is in the nation's interest and its position as the world's primary reserve currency would remain unchallenged for many years.
"The imbalance needs to be addressed by the adjustment of the currencies. The yuan needs to float against the dollar," said Roger Aliaga-Diaz, senior economist at Vanguard in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania.
"Clearly, the increase in savings rate in the United States will help address this," he said.
President Barack Obama assured his G20 guests that the country would not return to its old habits of living beyond its means. U.S. households are certainly not in any condition to stage a speedy return to their profligate ways of the past.
Friday's jobs report is forecast to show the U.S. economy lost another 188,000 jobs in September.
This would represent a slight improvement in the pace of job destruction, from 216,000 in August, but will still drive the U.S. unemployment rate to 9.8 percent in September, up from 9.7 percent in August and the highest reading since 1983.
Although faint, this glimmer of an hope is expected to be reinforced by modest upticks in manufacturing purchasing manager surveys for the United States, the euro zone and other key economies last month.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the U.S. manufacturing PMI to rise to 54 from 52.9 in August, while the euro zone's manufacturing PMI would edge up to 49.9 from 48.2.