* Coalition to handle reactor lives discussion with care
* Only newer plants may be allowed to run longer
By Vera Eckert
FRANKFURT, Oct 2 (Reuters) - A policy shift on nuclear energy looks further away under Germany's new centre-right coalition than originally thought, say experts who are dampening the industry's hopes for a quick reversal of the phaseout of atomic power.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), who start coalition talks on Monday, back changing Germany's exit law to let some plants operate beyond the time earmarked for closure.
But some experts questioned the resolve of the parties to push through radical steps, especially in the face of public opinion which is still against nuclear, and powerful lobby groups, who are bracing to mobilise their supporters.
"It was clear it would be hard to come to a new consensus and it would take time. There will be opposition," said Claudia Kemfert of the DIW economic research institute in Berlin.
Utility shares rose sharply early this week as conservative politicians said they wanted to stick to pre-election programmes to help nuclear remain a "bridging technology" until renewables, which are not yet commercially fit, can play a greater role.
But on Friday, RWE shares traded 4.5 percent below Tuesday highs and E.ON was 5.9 percent off this week's peak, showing early forecasts for billions of euros of extra earnings, if shared with the state, were perhaps overdone.
"A lot of value will be placed on the plants being safe and that existing controversial views of nuclear will have to be weighted accordingly," said Sal. Oppenheim analyst Matthias Heck in reference to the energy part of the coalition talks.
The 17 plants are meant to close by 2021 at the latest.
SACRIFICING OLDER PLANTS
One option for the government could be playing for time over the next four years by requiring that seven or so older plants, presumed to be "less safe", are asked to stick to the closure schedule laid out in a deal with the industry in 2000.
This would apply to the old so-called boiling water reactors as opposed to those with pressurised water technologies. The latter are predecessors of the new generation of European plants already under construction in France and Finland.
Alternatively, plants from the 1970s could be switched off earlier and those from the 1980s onwards given greater leeway.
For a table on plant details click on
"The government could ask the four to seven oldest or least modern units to be closed prematurely and maybe raise the quota for others," said Holger Krawinkel, energy expert at the VZBV consumer organisation in Berlin.
"That would give it time to calculate, collect and put to use any extra profits for the energy companies," he added.
Longer running times will generate huge extra revenue for the operators. The government has long said this must go into neutrally monitored funds on a benefit-sharing basis for both the public and the companies.
Krawinkel's group favoured insulating buildings and electric automobiles as most deserving of those funds. DIW's Kemfert also wanted carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to be included in dole-outs.
The organisation of energy and water utilities BDEW is already pleading for an even distribution of what could be 7.5 billion euros ($10.90 billion) a year of additional profits, according to UniCredit Group.
BDEW said energy efficiency must be boosted and energies in competition with nuclear also need to participate.
Given a narrow majority in the population against nuclear power, there is no talk of building new reactors on German soil.
And the Green Party and grassroots protestors have vowed to summon thousands onto the streets if the new government, instead of creating exceptions, tries to scrap the entire nuclear deal.
On Sept. 5, some 50,000 gathered in Berlin, saying nuclear energy was unsafe, outdated and its waste problem unresolved.